TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  SurgePox on Fri Mar 12, 2010 11:27 am

Well guys, unless everyone who has voted unvotes and changes to nobody, it doesn't look like our utopian dream of a lynchless first day will ever be accomplished. Sad

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Avalanche on Fri Mar 12, 2010 11:31 am

a lynchless day really is in advantage of the mafia. Otherwise the day next will be exactly the same as this one pal. We must at least try to find mafia, and if we make them vote as well we can eventually try to find a pattern.

How else do you expect to find the mafia?

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Vivian Vex on Fri Mar 12, 2010 11:33 am

Well by the looks of it I really doubt that they will vote for nobody. seeing as how people are suspecting Fobby and/or Hans

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  SurgePox on Fri Mar 12, 2010 11:42 am

Avalanche91 wrote:a lynchless day really is in advantage of the mafia.
Did you even think about reading any of my post? Are you suggesting that voting out someone at random is in the townies advantage? I don't know if you have ever taken a statisticians class, but we are more likely to fuck ourselves than hurt ourselves. You are saying that voting out Hans, someone who has never played and probably has no idea why they look so suspicious, is probably the strongest choice? I say you are probably picking off a clueless townie. No single person has come to his aid here, I think it isn't that likely he's mafia.
Otherwise the day next will be exactly the same as this one pal.
Not exactly. There is some merit to what Weldar said, about the reaction being important for analyzing who is what. Let me spell it out for you, people will react to any event that happens. A day passing with no one lynched will provide it's own townie reactions, which can be read in the same way that killing off each other can. Tomorrow will bring news of night actions, and a days worth of posts to analyze. Much better than trying to root out a mafian from page 1.
We must at least try to find mafia, and if we make them vote as well we can eventually try to find a pattern.
If we must burn through all our townies to discover mafia, it might be too late by the time we actually do. Our ONLY advantage is numbers, losing it means death. We have to work with some sense of self preservation if we are going to root out mafians. Also, from a standpoint of someone who is here to play a game and have fun, it's never cool to vote out a newbie on day one.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Avalanche on Fri Mar 12, 2010 12:01 pm

I see where you comming from Surge, but please keep the discussion on this down a notch. I know you love debating but this'll repeat what happened during the first game, a 2 page long discussion.
Give people the option or encourage them to vote nobody gives us no information at all. both townies and mafia will use it to avoid suspision. I am not blind to the fact there's probably a + 70% chance we'll off a townie, but at least this way we get information. Who votes for who, who juggles votes, create discussion (like this), create suspision. On the short therm, yes this puts us at disadvantage, on the long therm however this might be very usefull.
Say I die tomorrow, what will the reactions be? "damn mafia", "protect me doctor" There wont be anyone comming from the shadows like "He got what was comming to him" I agree with you that no matter how small, people will react on everything. This being a tekst based game however makes it much more complicated. We can't see any body-language or hear voices into people's changes. There might be small vague hints in people's replies, but these will most likely be too hard or too smal to notice.

I agree however on being a bit harsh and making my first vote go to the newbie. I will keep a very close eye on his actions though. Vote juggling 4 times is a sign of being very undeceisive or very nervous. I wont "vote nobody" though.

change vote to Fobby

current tally

Fobby: SIAB, Weldar, Mentok, Sahrimnir, Avalanche, Queatam
Hans: DRTJR, Ansem
Ansem: Hans
Nobody: Darkfalco, JGH27, viero, TheTJ

still not voted: TD260, Warchamp, Minby, Fobby, Spontaneous Combustion, Raya


Last edited by Avalanche91 on Fri Mar 12, 2010 2:55 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Raya on Fri Mar 12, 2010 12:36 pm

SurgePox wrote:Well guys, unless everyone who has voted unvotes and changes to nobody, it doesn't look like our utopian dream of a lynchless first day will ever be accomplished. Sad

Now hang on Surge, unless you're being sarcastic that's a very odd thing to say. Last game you were pouncing on suspects on the first day. Why so keen on a lynchless first day? I agree the odds are definately not in our favour and we're far more likely to hang one of our own, but why this sudden change of heart?

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  TheTJ on Fri Mar 12, 2010 12:40 pm

You forgot to put me on the tally Avalanche. I voted for nobody.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Avalanche on Fri Mar 12, 2010 12:41 pm

my bad, I'll edit it.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Spontaneous Combustion on Fri Mar 12, 2010 1:00 pm

I really have no idea what's going on here. Fobby practically asking to be lynched and Hans jumping from target to target.
I'll go with Nobody for now. It'd be very rude to kill Hans if this is his first game and Fobby is impossible to read. As always.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  SurgePox on Fri Mar 12, 2010 1:07 pm

Raya wrote:
SurgePox wrote:Well guys, unless everyone who has voted unvotes and changes to nobody, it doesn't look like our utopian dream of a lynchless first day will ever be accomplished. Sad

Now hang on Surge, unless you're being sarcastic that's a very odd thing to say. Last game you were pouncing on suspects on the first day. Why so keen on a lynchless first day? I agree the odds are definately not in our favour and we're far more likely to hang one of our own, but why this sudden change of heart?
I learned from my mistakes. Last game, I ended up getting an innocent killed over nothing, so I want to avoid that. I looked at the situation analytically, and that is the conclusion I came to. We are essentially voting at random, and we are more likely to hurt ourselves than do any good.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Spontaneous Combustion on Fri Mar 12, 2010 1:23 pm

While I'm agreeing that we will kill an innocent during the first day phase, I think something must be done. We want to lure the mafia out. Just unanimously choosing to not lynch anyone won't give us any clues.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  SurgePox on Fri Mar 12, 2010 1:26 pm

There is going to be a night phase, guys. I don't know about you guys, but generally I find that the night phase is awesome for having the mafia show their true colors. If you guys can't analyze that, then I don't know if we are going to be able to win this at all.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  SnakeInABox on Fri Mar 12, 2010 1:43 pm

Guys, We are looking into this too much. It is not about whether or not Hans is a newbie, it is about how he plays. And he plays off as very suspicious. However, being the benevolent hero I am, I will save a the kid for another day. I keep my vote on Fobby.

Also, I am sure that at least one of us has a sacrificial role. If so, now would be the best time to use it.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Weldar on Fri Mar 12, 2010 2:00 pm

Unanimously lynching anyone, unless it's to test a roleclaim or they're obviously mafia, never really helps out. Bandwagoning an innocent on day 1 (like we did to DRTJR game 1) is useless, it would be better to no lynch. But spreading out votes an d applying pressure in different places like we're doing now can help a lot. Come back in the future once we know the affiliation of some of the people involved, who was a little too eager to bandwagon on some innocents, who that is still alive suddenly had some votes slide off them etc. In the end chances are we'll hit a vanilla innocent. Killing an innocent is never good for the innocents but losing a vanilla isn't too much of a loss, especially if it's a player is someone who isn't going to be particularly helpful.

Night does give useful information, mostly to the people with roles though and we don't want them claiming too early. We can get something out of the identity of the mafia's victims yes but I'd say generally it's less useful than the voting patterns. The mafia tend to be pretty good at avoiding victims who can be easily connected to themselves and after a low discussion no lynch day it would be even harder to tell who'd want who dead (still today has had plenty of discussion already so even if we do end up on no lynch it won't be all that bad I guess.)

What do you mean by a sacrificial role Snake? Do you mean something like JGH had last game? If so I'm not too sure now's the best time, it's better saved for a time when you're more likely to save someone important. It depends how it works though if it creates a confirmed innocent then it may indeed be useful to use it early on.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  SnakeInABox on Fri Mar 12, 2010 2:05 pm

I mean a role that can be used to our advantage. We need to pull out the stops now. The reason us Mafias won the last two games was because we were able to get outta death for so long.

If we Lynch now, while we have the upper hand, we can win like townies did the first game.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Vivian Vex on Fri Mar 12, 2010 2:18 pm

SurgePox wrote:There is going to be a night phase, guys. I don't know about you guys, but generally I find that the night phase is awesome for having the mafia show their true colors. If you guys can't analyze that, then I don't know if we are going to be able to win this at all.

What exactly happens during the night phase?

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  DRTJR on Fri Mar 12, 2010 2:23 pm

the Mafia kill people, the Doctor protect some one, the Cop finds some one ect.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Quaetam on Fri Mar 12, 2010 2:47 pm

Spontaneous Combustion wrote:While I'm agreeing that we will kill an innocent during the first day phase, I think something must be done. We want to lure the mafia out. Just unanimously choosing to not lynch anyone won't give us any clues.

Everyone has been focusing on abstaining from the lynch (or they were when I went to bed last night :/. That was a fast five pages!) In reality, what we should avoid is random lynching. Statistics are against us on the first day. However, the ability to gauge other players' actions in respect to the identity of the deceased is an invaluable asset. Without a lynch we have nothing but nightkills to go on, and with this many people, would you put it past the mob to be random about it in order to throw everyone off?

Now, for Hans, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now, not because he's a newbie but because first day lynches tend to target innocents who got too nervous. I remember observing Mafia II where this sort of thing happened to td260 and he turned out innocent. Yet although this all is probably just nervous gameplay on his part, I find it odd how he votes for Ansem arbitrarily after agreeing that random lynching is not beneficial. However, he is suspicious at least.

As for Fobbs, even though he is excellent at screwing with our heads, I really can't make heads or tails of him. The first game, as Surge stated, Fobbs spent the entire game claiming mafia and actually turned out to be a goon. If he is mafia, he's doing a great job of standing on the brink of death. Yet if he is a Jester as I suggested earlier, a lynch would not be a good course of action. But has anyone noticed how there's already at least one player who wants him scanned first? Wouldn't that require us to reveal the identity of the cop in order to get him checked out? Fobby is a clever bastard, he might be aiming for exactly this.

I'm not going on much here, but I'd like to Vote: Fobby for now. The chance that he is a Jester is worth the risk: Even if he's a vanilla townie, we don't want him around for one simple reason: He's creating confusion. The Mafia, as an informed minority, can thrive in that sort of environment. With Fobby around it's difficult to see who the true enemies are. If he's the Jester and we lynch him, he'll win, but if he's a mafia or less he's still causing enough confusion for the town to lose sight of its true foes.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Raya on Fri Mar 12, 2010 2:58 pm

There's a lot of sense going on in the past few posts.

The way I see it is that currently the two main suspects are Fobby and Hans. I don't particularly want to vote for Fobby because he's got an angle of some kind, and likely a trap. Hans, too, like others have said, is the new guy so for the first day at least I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Since I'm off to bed now and night will roll over before I get the chance to come back on again, I'm going to put my vote as Vote: Nobody. Although we do need to start lynching I agree that the odds are not in our favour. Plus if I vote someone and amazing evidence comes to light, I'm buggered because I can't change it in time.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Hans on Fri Mar 12, 2010 3:00 pm

OK, prehaps I should clarify why I voted for Ansem, I'm just putting pressure on a random person to see if they slip up and reveal anything suspicious, I had no intention of actually lynching him, that's why I gave no reason why. It doesn't appear to work very well though, but I'm gonna leave my vote as it is, just because you guys think vote changing is suspicious. (Why is it suspicious? Just out of curiosity.)

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Avalanche on Fri Mar 12, 2010 3:04 pm

doing it once, isn't thát situation (specially in a suspisious like this), doing it twice just might be overlooked....doing it 4 times make you seem like your trying to hard.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Hans on Fri Mar 12, 2010 3:07 pm

I see, Maybe I should think more before I change my votes then. :/

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Weldar on Fri Mar 12, 2010 3:10 pm

Yeah I'd say the biggest thing that makes you look suspicious is that you're changing around a lot but giving little to no reason. You should always try to give some reasons for what you're doing in mafia. Even so just swing around so much like that looks suspicious enough on it's own.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  Hans on Fri Mar 12, 2010 3:11 pm

Then I won't change my votes so much anymore, just because you people are ready to kill someone for being indecisive.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

Post  TheTJ on Fri Mar 12, 2010 3:16 pm

That's how mafia games work. Say something the wrong way, make a suspicious post, and people will jump on it.

I recommend reading our old games. See who was mafia and what their patterns were. It'll really help if you know what got innocents killed in the old games and avoiding those things.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 4: Affiliations - Episode 7

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