MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

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Who deserves to win?

29% 29% 
[ 4 ]
36% 36% 
[ 5 ]
7% 7% 
[ 1 ]
21% 21% 
[ 3 ]
7% 7% 
[ 1 ]
0% 0% 
[ 0 ]
 
Total Votes : 14

Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Omicron Austin on Sun Jul 04, 2010 11:29 am

DRTJR wrote:Out of the Information we have I am going to Vote:Relmitos for a shot in the dark, and not having posted day one.

That's a good idea. The best way to avoid suspicion is to not post at all, so that for somebody to suspect you, they have to look at the original roster and notice that "inactive" person.

There are a few of these, but because DRTJR already picked somebody;

Vote:Relmitos

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  SnakeInABox on Sun Jul 04, 2010 11:46 am

Relmitos is going to be replaced by another player very soon.

Voting for him may be a waste of time, and unfair to the new player.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Raya on Sun Jul 04, 2010 12:04 pm

I've been having a little think about this. Four possible deaths mean there's at least three killing abilities (the fourth death could have been a side effect, for instance one of the targets could kill their killer on death, or a cult tried to recruit a mafian but was stopped, something like that). One death was definately mafia caused. That means we likely have both a serial killer and a vigilante in our midsts (unless Snake is a bastard and has two serial killers, in which case goddammit Evil or Very Mad).

So why were two deaths stopped? I can think of a few things:

- Doctor protected the target
- Roleblocker stopped the killer
- Something sabotaged the killing ability

What does that mean? That means that someone out there knows the identity of someone with a killing ability. Whoever is the roleblocker/saboture likely stopped one of killers. This is massively important information; if the killer is the vigilante we can use their powers for good, rather than random killing. If it's the serial killer, we can lynch them high. I understand though that they may not want to come out and announce it here; after all, look what happened to me last game when I called out Weldar! So, I'm offering an open invitation to them. If you trust me, get in contact with me. If not, contact someone you do. I can't do much to vouch for my innocence (since as far as I'm aware the detective hasn't scanned me yet and so can't back me up), but quite frankly we townies need to start our allegiance. Four deaths in the first night means this looks like a high fatality game. Unless we get our shit together and unite we're going to get torn apart.

Just to let everyone know I may not be online at all tomorrow, so I might miss the falling of the nightphase. I won't vote just yet because there hasn't been much activity, but I'll get one in before I disappear.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Omicron Austin on Sun Jul 04, 2010 1:25 pm

SnakeInABox wrote:Relmitos is going to be replaced by another player very soon.

Voting for him may be a waste of time, and unfair to the new player.

Well frick.

So who else is inactive? Dark Falco?

@Raya: How exactly can we use a Vigilante's ability for good if we really have no clues so far? A Vigilante knows just as much as everybody else, and if he/she kills it will be just a random stab in the dark.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Avalanche on Sun Jul 04, 2010 1:45 pm

carefull with accusing so many people Omicron. even if they are inactive, during the endgame this will be used against you.....just saying Suspect as for who to vote on, I am just gonna take a stab in the dark and vote......

Surgepox.

He isn't as active as usual, hasn't taken any initiative yet.....if for nothing else I hope this'll help him wake up.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Omicron Austin on Sun Jul 04, 2010 1:49 pm

Ah, true, I do look suspicious.

I'm just trying to find clues where there are none. I figure a non-lynch is a wasted one, just giving the mafia one extra day to kill. Inactive people show suspicion to me.

Such as Surge, like you're saying. But I'm not going to vote again until there's some sort of consensus.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  SurgePox on Sun Jul 04, 2010 2:07 pm

King Avalanche wrote:carefull with accusing so many people Omicron. even if they are inactive, during the endgame this will be used against you.....just saying Suspect as for who to vote on, I am just gonna take a stab in the dark and vote......

Surgepox.

He isn't as active as usual, hasn't taken any initiative yet.....if for nothing else I hope this'll help him wake up.
I've been super busy with summer classes. This week I had a group presentation which I had to schedule around my daily essays and planning for a speech I have to give this Tuesday. I'll be totally out of the woods in about two weeks, but my schedule gets a lot clearer in one week.

As such, let me drop what I've been pondering. This early catch on weldar being mafia is massively useful to this game. This gives us an opportunity to review his posts and see which if any players he has sort of allied himself with, as well as ones that he has treated in a way that a mafian wouldn't treat a fellow mafian. I think weldar is smart enough to not telegraph anything really obviously, but no one expects to go this early and I imagine he would try to position himself and his comrades.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  DRTJR on Sun Jul 04, 2010 2:15 pm

@ Raya at least nobody is nursing a grudge against you this time.

let's look at the dead people, Weldar(He was an evil little prick last game to the Mafia members) was probably killed because he was A an intelligent player or B a side affect of a body guard type role. so We know smash is not a mafia member. and Minby another intelligent player who is an early kill every game. I say three of the kills where blocked in some way like stopping a Cult/Mason induction of a Mafian, stopping a serial killer(Or two we are dealing with Snakeinabox) and the Mob. I say (one of) the serial killer(s) got the kill, the Mob's was stopped by the body guard and the Doctor and Role blocker where super effective.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Spontaneous Combustion on Sun Jul 04, 2010 2:18 pm

SurgePox wrote:
As such, let me drop what I've been pondering. This early catch on weldar being mafia is massively useful to this game. This gives us an opportunity to review his posts and see which if any players he has sort of allied himself with, as well as ones that he has treated in a way that a mafian wouldn't treat a fellow mafian. I think weldar is smart enough to not telegraph anything really obviously, but no one expects to go this early and I imagine he would try to position himself and his comrades.

Well...I tested this out and I didn't really get anything out of it.
He did vote for smashbro, which, considering Weldar's alignment, could prove smashbro's innocence or something, but it seemed like a joke vote to me, really. Who knows, maybe smash is Weldar's partner in crime again and this was just a distraction.

Now what we can make out of Weldar's death is the serial killer's identity, I think. Weldar pissed off a lot of people last time, so I'm thinking there's a possibility someone grudge killed him. That narrows the suspect list somewhat, but not much, because as I said...he pissed off a lot of people.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Quaetam on Sun Jul 04, 2010 2:24 pm

There's something going on here I really don't like (quotes condensed to save space, and placed in order of occurance):

smashbro- "Screw bandwagon. Vote: Raya"

Avalanche- "hmm I like to stand out a little....You can also see the vote as a precaution cause somehow she always tries to screw me over. vote Raya"

Ansem- "i'm actually for this! Raya screws me over every time!
and not in the good way *wink wink* Vote:Raya"

And now today JGH votes Raya as well, for the same reason? On the second day, after seeing td260 act as he did and seeing both Weldar (who was mafia) and DRTJR (who may or may not be) incriminate him? That's plenty of info, plenty of grounds for suspicion.

I can understand a couple people randomly throwing votes her way, but why would EVERYONE default to Raya when they have no idea who to vote for? Townies in this case would go for a vote on nobody, or at least wait for something to come up. I'm surprised none of them has pointed at the others for following through on the same grudge vote. Why not Weldar? Av says Raya always tries to screw him, even after Weldar's complete backstab game 6? I could see Avalanche voting for Weldar here, not Raya, if he really wanted to just grudge vote. Sure Raya's screwed with people in the past, but I really think the most recent game would be more immediate in peoples' heads. Had this really just been a random/grudge vote, it would have been on Weldar, not Raya. And damn, I have never known three innocent townies to follow through on the same grudge vote. I would not at all be surprised if Raya was a mafian danger enthusiast, requiring votes to gain powers, or something similar.

I've never heard of innocent townies defaulting onto a fellow player when they're out of leads in the beginning of a game. At least one (and maybe all of them) is mafia, regardless of whether or not Raya is guilty, and I have a good idea who.

Vote: Avalanche

My theory of the host nightkilling people was made to serve two purposes: Both to give people a better alternative to just voting nobody, and giving me a chance to analyze peoples' reactions. And I didn't just look at the bandwagoners. One of the typical strong mafia strategies is to go against the norm, to appear a strong, informed townie. This is widely accepted fact. And Avalanche's reaction was a complete paradox. In response to my theory he votes for Raya, alongside smashbro and later Ansem, doesn't call out either smash or ansem for the same grudge vote, and more importantly, he disagrees with the evil mod theory without calling me out for making it. And even I admit that it could have distracted the town for a couple days. Hell, guys, I only said to vote Snake if you wanted to vote nobody, not to bandwagon against him O_o. So Av both disagrees with the theory and then lightly supports it by saying snake might just be messing with us, and then says "whoops, I was wrong" when Snake isn't lynchable. In Game 6 he did the same thing, following along the idea that Avalanchia might be a mafia for as long as he could to keep the town off his back. You can't both disagree with a theory and support it. Couple this with the mini-wagon on Raya and we see a very, very likely mafian.

Granted, I could be wrong. Av could well be a townie, since a lot of this is based on speculatio. This is a powerful hunch, though, and I can't help but voice my fears here.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Omicron Austin on Sun Jul 04, 2010 2:26 pm

Could Weldar have had some kind of ability that took the shot for Smashbro? Could Smashbro be a godfather or a mafia member with some important power that Weldar would want to protect for the benefit of his team?

There's a lot of abilities to look through and SIAB may have made his own. I think Smash could very well be a mafia member just as much as he could be a townie.


EDIT: Ninja'd. Quaetman helps the case for Smashbro being mafian. If we're going to vote for one of those three, I think it should be Smash, though.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  DRTJR on Sun Jul 04, 2010 2:43 pm

Here is what I am saying Right now we have a four way tie between people with only one vote
I am saying Weldar would be the Last person I'd kill if I was a SK, He fucked over a lot of people last game. And revenge is a dish that gives you a lot of gas.

In Ansem, Avalanche, and Smashbro's Defense Raya never revels all her cards, as well as she can and has Screwed a lot of people over. we have had weirder than People randomly gravitate toward the same solution.

Q does have a Valid point. and I'd like the memo as well. Right now we have a Mexican stand off between 18 people of witch we only want about 4 or 5 dead.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Quaetam on Sun Jul 04, 2010 3:47 pm

DRTJR wrote:In Ansem, Avalanche, and Smashbro's Defense Raya never revels all her cards, as well as she can and has Screwed a lot of people over. we have had weirder than People randomly gravitate toward the same solution.

Q does have a Valid point. and I'd like the memo as well. Right now we have a Mexican stand off between 18 people of witch we only want about 4 or 5 dead.

Here's the thing: As I said above, there's a decent chance that Raya herself could be mafia. Mafians wouldn't bandwagon together against an innocent like that, at least not on Day 1. If she is revealed to be innocent, all of them would go down together. But if she's actually mafian, they might look innocent for their votes against her. If she is indeed a danger enthusiast and gains powers depending on how many votes are against her, that's all the more convenient for the mafia: If you remember, the danger enthusiast (the SIAB role) in my game was originally a mafian. For this reason I'm going to keep an eye on her, and I suggest you guys do the same. There's no concrete evidence to suggest that she herself is guilty, but it's a distinct possibility that can't be completely ignored.

As for Ansem, Avalanche, and smashbro, for all I know all three of them are mafia. And don't forget JGH, who voted for Raya today despite a lot of logic. But I'm voting Avalanche, and I suggest you guys do the same, because out of all four he's the one with the most against him. I have reason to believe that smashbro was the intended target of the first kill, and it was redirected onto Weldar. I haven't confirmed this yet, but if this is the case, the chances that he is mafian drop quite a bit. Ansem hasn't done much besides vote for Raya, so I can't properly judge him yet. Avalanche, as I mentioned earlier, has done quite a lot that supports his possible guilt. Any of them could be guilty, but Av seems to be the most prominent right now.

And, yes, DRTJR, there's about a 4 or 5 out of 19 chance that we lynch a mafian, so we should still avoid a random lynch. But this? This is far from random. I believe I've built a fairly strong case here. I'd bet money that at least one, if not all, of those bandwagoners is malicious in some way.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Fedaykin on Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:04 pm

I probably missed some points here because of lack of sleep,but Q has some strong points here.Gonna reread it tomorrow,don't want to look suspicious just because my brain is running on low battery.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Avalanche on Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:07 pm

one party and shit hits the fan

wauw Q, you really over analyse as much as 2 rather short posts. Though I strongly disagree, I am impressed by your reasoning none the less. Makes me reread the thread on the second day to check if your correct.

As for the first dayphase...I hardly take that serious. As a rule of thumb, when given the oppertunity mafians vote no one, or join the bandwagon on the first day to blend in and get the oppertunity to let the chaos and lack of knowledge last longer. My vote on the first day was more a attempt to lure some reaction out then to actually attempt have Raya dead already.

As for my reaction on Snake's post......I honestly was just kidding saying he;s just messing with us. He attempts to create a epic game, and I think having the mod be the badguy isnt the epic twist he hopes on.

As for current leads...I have a fair idea what happened with the entire 4 kills scenario
-mafia
-SK
-One shot was also aimed at Weldar (he had many enemies I assume)
-A cult/mason shifted target from a mafian/sk on the last moment, or a more unusual role is at play)

chances of the doc/roleblocker targetting the right people at night 1 are too slim

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  DRTJR on Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:31 pm

it should be noted that Suiside Angel has only posted once

Unvote:Relmitos
VOTE:SuicideAngel
This inactivity should be peeking ourintrest considering his activity last Mafia game.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Relmitos on Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:40 pm

Sorry for my absence guys. Believe or not, I don't care, but I went on vacation to the mountains recently, and there was a nice lack of internet for me to explain or participate. Came home today to blow up stuff with the rest of my friends tonight, because fireworks are fun. Vote for me for my absence if you wish, as a few people did. I can't really complain because an absence is really of NO use and I understand that. Sorry again.

Anyways, gave the topic a quick skim through to see what had happened in my absence. Voting for SiaB was really funny, I think. That would just be silly if the mod was who we had to kill, though plausible. Also; four kills a night? If that was able to happen every night, in a game with just 22 players in it will make for a VERY short game. I doubt that any mod would want a game to last for 5 days. Not saying that it's impossible. Night 0 kill, that's kind of amazing. Talk about bad luck. I'm going to further scan the topic before I start throwing theories around.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Ansem on Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:48 pm

gonna just make a short post be4 bedtime. Honestly, the only leads i have are so desperate, i can't make out what's wha, who or where.
more on this later.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Quaetam on Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:54 pm

Maybe, Avalanche, but here's the thing. Case you haven't noticed, I don't think you were trying to have Raya dead. I'm mostly bothered here by three people all voting against Raya for reasons that basically amount to "no other leads" or "she screws us over a lot." What really convinced me is that on top of none of you accusing each other, JGH voted Raya for the same elusive reasoning Day 2. It just bothers me that, as DRTJR says, everyone seems to gravitate towards the same person.

Also, mafians don't always go along with the bandwagon. Game 4 I eluded you by voting against Fobby Day 1, when he did look pretty suspicious. A common strategy for a mafia player is to, as I've said, appear a strong, informed townie, or at least attempt to be a free-thinker. Last game Mafia Black literally posted a set of rules outlying the way mafians should go against bandwagons and against each other to remain untraceable. Game 4 Minby and I did this, going against Hans in the start of the second day. Going against the bandwagon can create just as much confusion as ensuring an extra kill. Look at what Weldar did Day 1 this game. He not only voted for smash (who I will admit looks slightly guilty himself); he condemned the bandwagon as based on little logic (which it was-I didn't expect people to bandwagon on SnakeInABox when I said to vote for him if you wanted to vote for nobody instead). Sure, mafians will sometimes take the chance to vote for nobody, but I think appearing independent and well thought out would serve them just as well, especially if their random stab in the dark just so happens to hit a mafian.

And this is Day 2. There are far from no leads, and we can't do nothing, especially knowing there can be up to at least four deaths each night, and right now I'm going with the best lead I have. As I've been saying, this multivote on Raya can't just be a random bandwagon. Something has to be going on here. Whether you or smash or Ansem or JGH, someone here is guilty, and I don't like not knowing who. DRTJR, voting for people who are inactive won't help us get anywhere, not compared to actually analyzing and trying to find the mafians based on how people have acted.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  SuicideAngel on Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:57 pm

I apologize for my absence too, but I belive I have mentioned before I work on weekends. =P I'll be posting more often till next weekend lol

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  SnakeInABox on Sun Jul 04, 2010 6:02 pm

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  DarkFalco on Sun Jul 04, 2010 6:47 pm

Omicron Austin wrote:
SnakeInABox wrote:Relmitos is going to be replaced by another player very soon.

Voting for him may be a waste of time, and unfair to the new player.

Well frick.

So who else is inactive? Dark Falco?

.
i'm here now. i just haven't had an internet connection because the people at the cabin lied to us about the wi-fi. i'm glad we've killed off one of the mafia, it's just a shame that an innocent ended up dying too.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Relmitos on Sun Jul 04, 2010 6:52 pm

Sheesh, there really isn't much to go on. Q so far has the post that makes the most sense, to no surprise.

Also, from the first post describing Sah's death, it said that one snapped his fingers and seven more came out. I'm inclined to believe that there are 8 mafia, and with one being dead, I think there would be 7 left.


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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Warchamp7 on Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:23 pm

Spontaneous Combustion wrote:Weldar pissed off a lot of people last time, so I'm thinking there's a possibility someone grudge killed him. That narrows the suspect list somewhat, but not much, because as I said...he pissed off a lot of people.

And there lies the problem. Weldar practically mindfucked everyone last game with the exception of smashbro who has more or less been proved innocent to some extent.

Edit: Finished catching up on the thread. Some very interesting points Quaetem but I'm not so sure if I want to vote anyone just yet. You have my attention though.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

Post  Quaetam on Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:22 pm

Smashbro has not been proven innocent, not until we know for sure if he was indeed switched with Weldar. Like I said, I haven't confirmed this yet, so the possibility that he is mafian cannot be ignored completely, especially when you look at Weldar's random vote. Last game when Weldar grudge voted smashbro it caused smash to manipulate him, but also helped to separate the two of them in the town's minds. He could be doing the same now. Frankly, I'm inclined to believe Weldar might want us to think that. Putting a random vote on smash for the second game in a row is too obvious to be the same tactic used twice. It's for this reason that I'm against lynching smashbro first, and I want to try Avalanche. Smashbro could well be mafia, but I have some reason to believe he's benevolent. Just don't rule out him being guilty yet.

But frankly, we have about a quarter of our time left, since the phase ends in just under 14 hours. We can't let this dayphase go to waste.

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Re: MafiaInABox Game 7 - THE GREAT AVALANCHIAN WAR

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