TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

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TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  nn8n on Thu Dec 22, 2011 6:36 am

Quick Reference Post

Major Events:
Day Phase 1 End
Night Phase 1 End
Mario Drama \ Day Phase 2 End
Night Phase 2 End
Samus' Passing \ Day Phase 3 End
Night Phase 3 End
Day Phase 4 End
Night Phase 4 End
Conclusion

Players:


1. Snake
2. Avalanche
3. Raya
4. TD260
5. DRTJR
6. Spont
7. Requiem
8. TheTJ
9. Fedaykin
10: Omicron
11: Ansem
12: Minby
13. JGH27
14. Weldar
15. Quaetam

Legend
Dead Townie
Dead Mafia
Dead 3rd Party
Dead and Under Investigation


Rules

Day/Night Phases are going to be approximately 48 hrs each. On the Night Phase you will have 36 hrs to get all night actions in to me, of which a special 12 hr reaction period will commence. This 12 hr period is used for players that may need more time or abilities that require reactions to other happenings. For the timestamp of my desired 12 hr intervals click here.

PM’s are limited to 3 per Day unless specified. Honor system is in effect please do not misuse.

Role Claim only if completely necessary, I will use my digression or if too many people feel it was misused I will act accordingly.

SnakeInABox Rule has now been implemented. Last night action in will be tossed. unless it makes for a good story!

Story Start

The orphanage was coming along fine, Samus kept up with everyone to make sure they are ok while Luigi answers the phone. When going to check on him she stops when he runs out of the room with a determined look on his face, she knew that it wasn't quite over yet and started to follow him.

Mafia 16: TWBB Next Chapter


Last edited by Avos Me Lardo on Wed Jan 11, 2012 1:32 pm; edited 22 times in total

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  Fedaykin on Thu Dec 22, 2011 6:38 am

Is it already too late for other people to join in? I bet Eisenbeißer would like to play too(will ask him a bit later)

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  SnakeInABox on Thu Dec 22, 2011 10:03 am

The window of opportunity for new players seems to have passed. However Confirmation thread is still open and ready for him to sign up for Rayas game.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  JGH27 on Thu Dec 22, 2011 11:15 am

Let's Play Everyone! cheers

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  Requiem on Thu Dec 22, 2011 12:09 pm

I Vote... Well damn... Neither of my normal targets are playing this game... I vote Q for being a devious bastard!

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  Fedaykin on Thu Dec 22, 2011 12:20 pm

Well, I did win last time, so what could be my grudge? Well, Roy killed me, but it was all luck shenanigans anyway...sooo the RNG says Vote:Raya

nothing personal Razz

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  TD260 on Thu Dec 22, 2011 1:32 pm

First day votes are nothing more than extreme russian roullette.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  Requiem on Thu Dec 22, 2011 1:50 pm

Extreme? Really? You realize that in average, playing russian roullette, the number of bullet chambers is 6, and one chamber is filled. That's a one in six chance of death. Following that up, we have fifteen players (Assuming I was paying attention to the roster in the first post).

Now, if we have fifteen players, and three or four of them are mafian, then our odds of catching a mafian are better than catching a bullet. Assuming we have three mafians (An extremely low number), we have a 20% chance of hitting one, whereas we only have a 16% chance of taking a bullet in russian roullette. If we have four mafians, we have a 26% chance to catch one. That means that 1 in four of us are mafian.

The odds of catching a mafian on a first day lynch are in fact quite high, even on a random lynch. Beyond that, a lynch supplies full response capabilities to be noted in a game. Statistically it is logical to lynch on a day one, and if people weren't so paranoid about lynching an innocent, the proof would quite clearly show itself in the numbers.

As a side note, I really do hate math, but I figured it'd be fun to do the simple calculations on odds

EDIT: I almost completely forgot about 3rd Party Members, who also make up a one or two player marigin average. So yeah, odds going up for catching a non townie. Think about it.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  Avalanche on Thu Dec 22, 2011 2:11 pm

Nyeh

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  Requiem on Thu Dec 22, 2011 2:14 pm

YOU CANNOT ARGUE WITH MATH! Trust me, I've tried :/

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  Ansem on Thu Dec 22, 2011 2:39 pm

Then vote you pussy!

Vote: Requiem

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  Requiem on Thu Dec 22, 2011 2:41 pm

*Blinks* I did *Points to first post* See? I voted for Q

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  Ansem on Thu Dec 22, 2011 2:41 pm

Woops, my bad.

Spoiler:
Vote stays tho

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  Requiem on Thu Dec 22, 2011 2:42 pm

That's fine, I just get annoyed when everybody votes nobody

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  DRTJR on Thu Dec 22, 2011 3:04 pm

Looking forward toward our celibration of Mafia's 16 incarnation.
I VOTE GORBLAX as a dark hourse canidate.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  TD260 on Thu Dec 22, 2011 3:39 pm

thing is, in a mafia game, people have powers. Would you really want to hit the doctor day one? Or the Cop? I mean, yes, the chances are in the favor of hitting a mafia, BUT i'd rather play it safe day one.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  SnakeInABox on Thu Dec 22, 2011 3:40 pm

Someone call me when we finish this waste of a day phase.

Seriously, You would think the classic Who-Do-We-Vote-Day-One Debate would have been solved by now.


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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  Requiem on Thu Dec 22, 2011 4:17 pm

That's true, but don't we run that risk every time we vote? I mean seriously, how many times have we been lead astray and lynched a townie before, on days when we had plenty to work with? Quite a few I'd wager. We chance killing somebody of value every time we vote, but by your reasoning, we should never vote. What I mean by this is by your words, even if "the chances are in the favor of hitting a mafia" you'd rather "play it safe". Even if we have plenty of evidence against someone, there is still that risk that they're just a townie, so should we let it ride then as well and just not lynch anybody?

Of course not! So what's the difference now? We have a high chance of catching a mafian on the first day! Why waste an opportunity? Should we really just lie down and let them kill us off one at a time?

Normally I wouldn't bother arguing, but I'm bored tonight, so yeah... Plus I miss mafia, a lot.

Snake, hush yourself.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  Weldar on Thu Dec 22, 2011 4:34 pm

Requiem wrote:Extreme? Really? You realize that in average, playing russian roullette, the number of bullet chambers is 6, and one chamber is filled. That's a one in six chance of death. Following that up, we have fifteen players (Assuming I was paying attention to the roster in the first post).

Now, if we have fifteen players, and three or four of them are mafian, then our odds of catching a mafian are better than catching a bullet. Assuming we have three mafians (An extremely low number), we have a 20% chance of hitting one, whereas we only have a 16% chance of taking a bullet in russian roullette. If we have four mafians, we have a 26% chance to catch one. That means that 1 in four of us are mafian.

The odds of catching a mafian on a first day lynch are in fact quite high, even on a random lynch. Beyond that, a lynch supplies full response capabilities to be noted in a game. Statistically it is logical to lynch on a day one, and if people weren't so paranoid about lynching an innocent, the proof would quite clearly show itself in the numbers.

As a side note, I really do hate math, but I figured it'd be fun to do the simple calculations on odds

EDIT: I almost completely forgot about 3rd Party Members, who also make up a one or two player marigin average. So yeah, odds going up for catching a non townie. Think about it.

On a pure random level yeah we've got a 20-30% chance of killing a mafian (the standard percentage of non innocent players in a given game). Thing is it's not quite pure random, the mafians know each other and will subtly try to influence the vote to stay away from their own, but this is the kind of thing we can watch out for and perhaps catch them with later. Technically the odds are not in our favour of hitting a mafian. But the thing is, they almost never are. No lynching now is just a waste of a day. Like I've said a million times before, the vast majoirty of day 2s have just as much to go on as day 1s, more often then not the info gatherers will not get useful info n1 and even if they do they may choose to wait a few days to out it if they're not a high profile target. No lyching day 1 just delays the random crapshoot day to day 2 and hands the mafia a free kill in the process.

I lack a grudge vote right now so Vote: td260

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[quote="Quaetman"]
There was a flash of lightning, and the figure’s visage was illuminated for a moment, a single, terrifying moment, a revelation that seemed to stop the world dead.

“Checkmate,” said Weldar, and fired his bullet into JGH27’s heart.
[/quote][quote="King Avalanche"] I doubt any of our craniums will come out of this game a virgin cause Weldar is gonna fuck them all.[/quote]

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  TD260 on Thu Dec 22, 2011 4:56 pm

Weldar wrote:

No lynching now is just a waste of a day. Like I've said a million times before, the vast majoirty of day 2s have just as much to go on as day 1s, more often then not the info gatherers will not get useful info n1 and even if they do they may choose to wait a few days to out it if they're not a high profile target. No lyching day 1 just delays the random crapshoot day to day 2 and hands the mafia a free kill in the process.

Ah, yes, but losing the crapshoot means you handed the mafia TWO free kills. And we can't really afford to lose that many people.


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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  Weldar on Thu Dec 22, 2011 5:02 pm

By your logic we should never lynch on any day unless we have a scan or something to go on which is an absolutely abysmal approach.

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[quote="Quaetman"]
There was a flash of lightning, and the figure’s visage was illuminated for a moment, a single, terrifying moment, a revelation that seemed to stop the world dead.

“Checkmate,” said Weldar, and fired his bullet into JGH27’s heart.
[/quote][quote="King Avalanche"] I doubt any of our craniums will come out of this game a virgin cause Weldar is gonna fuck them all.[/quote]

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  Requiem on Thu Dec 22, 2011 5:06 pm

Didn't I say that already?

Oh, I did indeed

"What I mean by this is by your words, even if "the chances are in the favor of hitting a mafia" you'd rather "play it safe". Even if we have plenty of evidence against someone, there is still that risk that they're just a townie, so should we let it ride then as well and just not lynch anybody?

Of course not! So what's the difference now? We have a high chance of catching a mafian on the first day! Why waste an opportunity? Should we really just lie down and let them kill us off one at a time?"

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  TD260 on Thu Dec 22, 2011 5:09 pm

fine. you know what? fine. Day one, and we're playing russian roulette.

Vote: weldar

Might as well make it a mexican standoff.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  Fedaykin on Thu Dec 22, 2011 5:19 pm

td260 wrote:Might as well make it a mexican standoff.

...lol

with Weldar, it is ALWAYS a Mexican Standoff Razz

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

Post  nn8n on Fri Dec 23, 2011 4:05 am

Please if you can see this post and check the timestamp, this is the time around the 12 hr multiples I wanted to use. Basically it is at my 6 am/pm Eastern Standard Time Zone for the US. I'm posting this post for those that are at different areas of the world.

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Re: TWBB Mafia 16: TWBB Sequel Conclusion: Winners Mafia

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