Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Catterick on Sat Jun 14, 2014 10:36 am

Yep I gave you back the rune after you bounced it back to me Minby. Because you are number one choice for lynching today and I need to think about my win conditions too.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Minby_Aran on Sat Jun 14, 2014 10:42 am

Well, if you're going to be so candid, can the town really afford to lose two players this phase?

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Catterick on Sat Jun 14, 2014 10:51 am

If one of them is a mafia, sure. Also put yourself in my shoes, the town is holding me to hostage as a body, and the mafia don't care about me because they can kill me at their leisure and I have no night actions.

Those that want to keep me around aren't necessarily the townies. The mafia want a useless role around too.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Minby_Aran on Sat Jun 14, 2014 11:07 am

The mafia wants to clear out people because, assuming there is only one left, there needs to be two people left alive for them to win. For the mafia, if two people left the game this dayphase, the mafia kills, and the vig kills, then there would be two people left, assuming that the mafia kill cannot get a mafian, even getting to the night means that neither person who left the game this phase was a mafian, it would basically be up to the vig to pick correctly, and if it's you and me gone, Cat, everyone else is "confirmed". The town can't be thinking phase by phase anymore. We need to think straight through to the end.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Quaetam on Sat Jun 14, 2014 11:09 am

Alright, with six people left, we're nearing endgame.  There are either one or two mafians remaining: this makes today not quite a mylo phase, but extremely close.  I've got very little time until this evening but I want to quickly look at the remaining players and provide some thoughts. 

First, Catterick - Catterick could be mafia, but at this point I highly doubt it.  Most of the evidence for Caterrick being third party was stated Day 2 and Day 3.  Since then, a number of players have been made his target, myself included, and we've all been able to pass along the thingy as per the game 23 role.  Relmitos has also repeatedly stated that this is his favorite role from Game 23 and he wanted to see it used again.

Catterick's play has also compounded this - repeatedly shifting targets and pushing hard on different players every day.  Yesterday's push on Minby was the prime example of this - he's like a dog with a new bone, vehemently chasing after whoever's got the thingy. 

At this point I'd be very surprised if he turns out to be mafia with a role meant to mimic the G23 Lura somehow. The evidence, and his playstyle, has matched the roving lyncher far too closely. 

Next, Spontaneous - hit my suspicion radar early, and played incredibly suspicious throughout most of the game, but events since then have nearly convinced me of his innocence.  It's fairly accepted that the mafia attempted to kill me N2 - if this is true, this could be a blatant frame attempt on Spont.  Additionally, I was told in my role PM that I had to find Spont's role, and that by joining up, we'd essentially become mason buddies and be able to communicate all game.  As this has occured two nights ago, I think it's fairly clear that Spont is not mafia. 

There are some things that sill bother me here: Since he and I joined up he hasn't responded to a single PM, and he's lain extraordinarily low in thread.  It's possible Relm could link me to a mafian as a means of throwing me off, but that would be extraordinarily cruel Razz.  I'm inclined to trust my role's hard evidence at this point.

Third, DarkFalco - DarkFalco has more or less thoroughly proven her ability with kills on Spoon and on JGH last night.  Yes, she killed JGH.  This was at mine, and Requiem's advisement - as she claimed, she was able to speak to both myself and Requiem for the duration of the nightphase.

Why this is, I have absolutely no idea, but I suspect Requiem's power was enhanced, allowing him to communicate with a third player.  (The fact is this had to do with someone's power, so of COURSE Relmitos isn't clarifying.  That's like asking the host to describe who the cop scanned - and what the result was!)

At this point, because she has a separate killing ability, it's abudantly clear she isn't mafia - unless someone else would like to claim the kill on Requiem? 

I've got only one concern and it's that DarkFalco could possibly be a Serial Killer.  This has been brought up throughout the game but never fully explored. I'd considered a SK way too overpowered for this game but honestly with two or three protection roles it isn't entirely out of the question.  It's also important to note that she's had kills every other nightphase - not out of the question if she's a serial killer with a recharge.

As for whether she's a vigilante or an SK?  The decisive piece to her role, beyond the uncc'd kills, is her magic bullet claim.  It would be easy for her to fake this claim on the nights she needs to recharge, and just pretend she shot a townie, but that would be incredibly risky: If she pretended to have targeted a mafian with a magic bullett, the mafia would know she's bluffing, and she'd be setting herself up to be framed for a lynch or nightkilled as the game gets close.  Additionally, looking at evidence, she claimed to have shot td night 2, and we know she killed Spoonman night 3.  I think her magic bullet ability is very real. 

As for how she's been using it? Her play has been decidedly townie - clearing Spont, J, and a few others with the ability.  She's been cooperative in terms of attempting to clear up the unknowns and helped to build an alliance of very strongly confirmed townies via her claims.  

The facts right now are that we know she's not mafia unless the mafia can make two kills.  Because of this, I'd rather focus elsewhere; the evidence has her leaning very much towards vigilante.  We can root out the final mafia, and if the game is continuing, then we revisit the SK possibility. 

This also means our mafian is one of, if not both, Td260 or Minby_Aran.


Unfortunately, at this stage, I have to go - I'm leaning towards Minby for the vote for reasons I'll explain in a few hours when I return, despite the situation regrading Catterick.  But I want to wait to see what card I've drawn so I can formulate a plan for tonight, and to give the thread one final bit of analysis.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Quaetam on Sat Jun 14, 2014 11:11 am

Tl;dr for above:
Cat is almost certainly 3p
Spont is almost certainly town unless relmitos is fucking with me
DF can't be mafia, could be SK but I'm leaning vigilante

Td and Minby are our most likely Mafians; currently leaning Minby but I'm not 100% yet and will be giving it further thought.

Also wanting to eliminate a known third party rather than hunt for the mafia at this stage is not working in your favor, Minby.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Minby_Aran on Sat Jun 14, 2014 11:32 am

You say known third party with a lot of conviction. It's not unheard of for hosts to change the alignments of their favorite roles to throw players off. My mafia happy guys are a good example of this.

Regardless, I'm dead either today or tonight, I'm not 100% convinced of anyone's alignment, because there's plausible reasoning for everyone to be mafia. Q, you very well could have pulled off the greatest bus of all time, and no one could doubt that you're a good enough player to do that. DF being a SK has been talked about, spont being a mafia "mason" is possible, this game is pretty insane, and no one can really be trusted.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  TD260 on Sat Jun 14, 2014 1:44 pm

CatTeRick is the man with a plan bUt we know (here we go) he is fiShing for a win condiTion aNd that is nO buenO. Neutral
DF is the chick with a stick it goes boom and Now soon wE must ask if she's town or from the moon. ;_;
Q is realLy smart It's An aRt How he fInDs the scum but if hE iS one we can't Tell them apaRt. His power checks oUt so givE a Shout but I know that that's not Everything the game is about. Razz
Sponty is vouched by q hey that's new seems aLmost to good to be true but that's all I knew. Embarassed
Minby drives real Fast in the past that's not good its from the hood and now we must wonder if voting for him we should. Question
Many people died but if we tried we can win so give give a grin. Very Happy
I need scissors 61 cheers

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Quaetam on Sat Jun 14, 2014 2:21 pm

td260 wrote:TRUST NO ONE
LIAR HIDES TRUE SELF

Yes thank you td for pointing out mafia 101.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Catterick on Sat Jun 14, 2014 2:55 pm

But what could "I need scissors 61" mean? It's a secret to everybody.

Unvote: Quaetam
Vote: Minby


I'm not a proud man, Luigi.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Spontaneous Combustion on Sat Jun 14, 2014 5:22 pm

Sorry. So goddamn busy right now.

Q is basically the only one I trust right now. I buffed DF last night and suddenly we had two deaths. Minby's voting track record is not so pretty, and TD has been fucking around the whole game. Plus Catt is a third party that's either going to help us or proceed in a surprise sodomy of unconsenting nature.

I really have no idea now.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  DarkFalco on Sat Jun 14, 2014 5:28 pm

I ended up deactivating the buff because I was afraid that it would protect the godfather. Again I really felt strongly about J, much like spoon, but like I said I got that one wrong. So it comes down to the only ones I think are trustable are you, spont, due to buffing me, something a mafian sure as heck wouldn't do, and q for the simple fact that he was jailed and another death happened anyway. Unless there are two mafia left and he's screwing us, which I doubt. And a power buff would be rather op to give to a mafian anyway.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Minby_Aran on Sat Jun 14, 2014 5:40 pm

Ok, hold on a second. Isn't DF's boost supposed to be that she won't kill a mafian? That suddenly makes her suspicious as hell. a double kill would make sense as a buff to a SK, moreso if the SK can only kill every other night, like Q pointed out may be the case.
My tier list of suspicion:
Relatively safe tier:
Q and Spont: I don't fully trust them, but logically they are the safest bets
Suspicious tier:
TD and DF: Plausible that either TD is mafia or DF is SK for reasons stated
Me tier:
Me: I know I'm town, no one else is convinced. I used my power as much as possible to help the town. The first time, I was ignored and Vie died anyway, the second time made us trust TD and Q. If one of them is mafia, then the town loss is kinda my fault. Regardless, I do not make it to the end of this game alive unless we push for a lynch on someone else today for me to be killed tonight and nail the mafia
Known non-town tier:
Cat: I'm really not convinced that he has to be third party, but no one else seems to care at all about that possibility. I can't fault him for wanting to lynch me and win, because I'd do the same, but he may make it to the end and win just because killing him is seen as not helpful


Ninja edit: just saw DF's post, still not totally convinced. Someone is playing a great game, and I wish it were me right now, because I'm stuck not knowing what to do.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Spontaneous Combustion on Sat Jun 14, 2014 5:45 pm

I really need to get some sleep now and I just know the game's going to end with a bang while I'm asleep.

Fucking time zones.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Spontaneous Combustion on Sat Jun 14, 2014 5:55 pm

Unless the deadline gets delayed (I'd really appreciate it), this is probably going to be my final vote.

Vote: td260

I'm not going to play this "look at me I'm the jester whee" game with you, son.
Don't go Spont Mode on The Spont.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Quaetam on Sat Jun 14, 2014 6:38 pm

+1 to that!

I'm holding off on my vote for the moment as I'm still looking at the thread, but honestly, I wish we had an LTB this game.  The two of you combined have been so goddamn scummy it's a little silly. 

Despite being active everywhere, Tristan has literally done nothing this game; he's sitting back and spouting nonsense with 'hidden cryptic messages' that really mean nothing.  His posts have been the biggest waste of time I've seen so far.  I've had him pegged as jester since day 2 with the slight complication that he could be a doctor, given Minby's powerswitch.  Yet the only evidence of his protections we have are his survived nightkill and the fact that my power was switched with his.  If we are going to lynch td, he needs another two votes: With catterick's doublevote, td and Minby aren't even tied at this stage.  He's had some slightly revealing play, in what looks like a slip of his 'impediment' day 3, and in his attempt to lynch Catterick yesterday despite all the leads everywhere else, but with his overall lack of participation he's hard to judge, and with his 'impediment' / fool softclaim, he's placing himself at the center of a huge wifom that we haven't really shaken off all game. 

To be blunt, I'd policylynch him if it wasn't close to mylo. 

Minby is suspicious for reasons Catterick brought up, as well as his attempt to push for a Catterick lynch today - having played the hot potato twice now, he should know as well as anyone what Cat's role is.  It's become increasingly obvious, to the point that he's not even hiding it anymore.  Lynching a harmless third party is literally the worst thing we could do today - it leaves us going into tomorrow without having cleared up any of the top suspects - possibly losing the game if there are somehow two mafians left.  Beyond that, he's continuing to push suspicion on everyone we see as near confirmed - yes, skepticism is good, but also it looks like a desperate attempt to divert attention wherever possible. 

Additionally, Cat made a very solid find yesterday: Minby's inconsistency about Viero's alignment is, if not the worst scumslip this game, then very close.  I want to doublecheck the context of the posts here, but if they line up the way Cat claims, Minby would clearly have been lying about his reasoning for the Viero switch.  I also agree that predicting Sah as the mafia's kill seems... far-fetched to say the least.  Sahrimnir was incredibly far out of the way, and the mafia had much better targets day 1 - Raya, Weldar, anyone who voted for Viero, to name a few.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Minby_Aran on Sat Jun 14, 2014 7:33 pm

Holy shit, Q, it is not like you to continuously blow over obvious points. I know what happens when I die, the game goes on. I'm not saying you shouldn't kill me, that would be a waste of effort on my part, but when I'm dead and you all know that I'm innocent, I'm leaving all the information and speculation that I have out in the open so the town can still win.

Q, you still have not even mentioned the only reason that I would consider pushing for Cat this phase, the possibility that he is not third party. Not every role is aligned the obvious way. In fact, with everything we know, we can be 100% sure that there is a role that isn't aligned how we think. Even the driver is a roughly 75-25% split between town and mafia, every role in this game that we "know" exist should be town, save Cat's.

No, lynching Cat is not the worst thing we could do today. Q, DF, or Spont would all be worse decisions.

I already covered that. Look at every game I have ever played. I am extremely hesitant to lynch with no motivation. I wouldn't have voted for Vie when I had nothing against her except for a gut feeling. The same kind of gut feeling that I had that night when I thought to swap Sah and Vie.

Basically, this is how I see things going down now. I'm going to vote:TD, both saving myself, and keeping Cat in the game (assuming he has the role we think, the thing we cannot talk about works the way we assume, and assuming a lot of things, basically, as we have all game). If that doesn't end the game, I expect to be killed at night, and if I am not, well, then DF should have some explaining to do, because it would basically make no sense for a townie to kill anyone else at that point. Someone else will probably be killed as well by the mafia.That will leave three people alive, Cat most likely being one of them, and he will basically get to choose what he wants to do.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  TD260 on Sat Jun 14, 2014 8:54 pm

ForsootH, whAt light through yonder dawNgate breaks Down? sunny 

It is the east, and the innocent are the sun, FOR their light shall be the light of savior saving of safety.  cheers 

The dawn is rising, and soon we shall faCe the unknown tomorrow!  king 

But what Evil lurks amongst the hearts of men? the Darkness approaches. We must steel ourselves.  confused 

I hear its amazing when the famous purple stuffed worm in flap-jaw space with the tuning fork does a raw blink on Hari Kiri Rock.   pirat 

Vote: Minby

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  DarkFalco on Sat Jun 14, 2014 9:37 pm

I agree with spont on this one...it's just not sitting well with me. Vote: TD

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Quaetam on Sat Jun 14, 2014 10:09 pm

Alright, here's the plan tonight.

First, we Vote: Minby.

I've run all possible outcomes and I'm almost 100% certain this is the best move. Lynching Minby eliminates his driver power:  I'd rather be up against a td, who would be a plain mafian (or one with nighkill immunity) than Minby, who, if mafian, could redirect our vigilante's kills with his driving ability.  If we lynch td and we're wrong, Minby as a driver, and Cattreick as a doublevoter, add an extra layer of uncertainty that could easily sink the game this next phase.

If Minby is mafia, the game is almost certainly over, and we win. 

If Minby isn't mafia, we hit the following scenario and should still have a guaranteed win:

Catterick wins and leaves the game, meaning he is no longer a factor.  If he doesn't win, DarkFalco can shoot him tonight.  If the dog finally gets his bone and Catterick and Minby are both eliminated, there are four of us left: Myself, Spont, DarkFalco, and TD260. 

I will ROLEBLOCK td260 tonight preventing the mafia's kill. 

DarkFalco, if we reach tonight with only myself, Spont, you, and td, shoot TD and end the game.  If the game isn't over, we can lynch Spont tomorrow.


Last edited by Quaetam on Sat Jun 14, 2014 10:16 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Minby_Aran on Sat Jun 14, 2014 10:14 pm

Well, Q, you obviously do put yourself in the best situation, and no one can blame you for that, but you seem to be overlooking something. If you get to tomorrow with that plan, you lose, because that means the mafia would still have their kill. Q, it is very unlike you to miss that obvious clue. Guys, I expect to die, fully. I don't mind it if you remember the things I say once I'm cleared as innocent. Q has been playing for himself all game, do not be surprised if he sacrificed his own man to clear his name and coast to the end.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Quaetam on Sat Jun 14, 2014 10:19 pm

Minby_Aran wrote:Well, Q, you obviously do put yourself in the best situation, and no one can blame you for that, but you seem to be overlooking something. If you get to tomorrow with that plan, you lose, because that means the mafia would still have their kill. Q, it is very unlike you to miss that obvious clue. Guys, I expect to die, fully. I don't mind it if you remember the things I say once I'm cleared as innocent. Q has been playing for himself all game, do not be surprised if he sacrificed his own man to clear his name and coast to the end.

What exactly am i overlooking?  We lynch you, and if you're town I roleblock the only possible mafian in the game, meaning we're guaranteed to enter Day 7 with four people unless we win tonight.  If we DO enter day 7 (meaning td survives DarkFalco's kill), we lynch td.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  TD260 on Sat Jun 14, 2014 10:23 pm

BEWARE THE MASK clown clown clown clown clown 

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Minby_Aran on Sat Jun 14, 2014 10:26 pm

You seem much too confident of everyone's alignment. There are still definitely questions for everyone in the game.

Ninja edit: TD, goddamnit, I really can't wait until this game is over and we can talk about what the fuck is going on. Maybe I'm just projecting my own feelings on him right now, but he is clearly trying to say he is being controlled, and I feel like he's trying to point to Q. Then again, I could be seeing things with this one.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

Post  Quaetam on Sat Jun 14, 2014 10:27 pm

Vote Tally

Minby(3) - Catterick, Td260, Quaetam
TD260(3) - Spont, Minby, DF

Cat, I really hope you're not lying about that goddamn doublevote.

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Re: Mafia Game 26; The Crystal War, 7th Day

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