Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Wed Aug 06, 2014 1:29 am

SurgePox wrote:I don't think I've ever seen a lover lead an bandwagon on thier loverbonded partner. Wow. We talked about this earlier actually, if you'll recall Catt, and it was our agreement that I lay low and try to pull scum votes. I never thought YOU would go ahead on it but I guess here we are.
Ah, true. That was on D5 though. During the two days of unanimous mafia lynches, I kind of thought you'd resurface, but fair enough. As for the loverbond, remember it was you yourself who noted that it didn't say if we'd die if the other did. I admit, this is a bit of a gambit, but seeing as the last lover pair in a TJ game got to live one day after their lover died, I'm hoping it's the same this time. And a husband suspecting his wife, makes for a good story, don't you think?
SurgePox wrote:Also, onto your argument about Relms role, I think you're interpreting it all wrong, you have to see it from the hosts perspective: TJ doesn't inherently know if we are sending posts back and forth until he gets our recaps. It seems likely to be the case that when Relm tracked me, TJ assumed we were still connected, or decided for fluff reasons that the lovers are inherently tracked to each other. We can test this, actually, by having Relm track you and seeing what happens.
Well here's the thing, and I'd actually forgotten it until just now. Whenever I sent you a message I put TJ in the send list so he'd know. On the day following the night Relm tracked you, TJ sent me a message over Skype asking me if I'd PMed you over the nightphase. I told him no. And I know I received no PM from you. I'm not sure if it's bad etiquette to use this seeing as it's outside game knowledge, but the fact that TJ asked me if I messaged you sounds like he was looking for confirmation for Relm's tracking results.

That said, I'm not sure what interaction you might have been putting on me if you are mafia, so maybe it's all just a clerical error. And we can't verify it cause Relm died a long time ago.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  SurgePox on Wed Aug 06, 2014 10:51 am

He asked me the same question, but it was over skype so I didn't reply in time since I never use skype. I think this arguement is kind of a gray area in terms of game legality also. In either case, as Q pointed out, my power over you was NOT one that resulted in a kill and nobody claimed a protect that night. I don't know what kind of maf power you'd be expecting seeing as I am already loverbonded, to be loverbonded, have a non-killing but also non apparent power (likely an info role or a protect), and be mafian seems like a little much.

In either case, I want to warn the town that killing me is likely to result in a double townie death. I will take that hit with honor, for the sake of progress, but don't be surprised when it happens.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Wed Aug 06, 2014 11:37 am

I'm very confused and conflicted right now. My thought process is as follows:

(1)There was a kill last night. Therefore, it must either be the mafia or the SK holding us back... cult with killing power is unlikely

(2)Obviously, we've had no serial kills all game. Seeing as people think the SK would have to be Raya, who always wanted to be SK, I don't think she'd abstain from killing. Therefore, the likely explanation is that there's one more mafia remaining.

(3)Everyone has been scanned except Sah himself, Q and Surge. Now I don't like Q as a mafia possibility because smashy hinted that he protected him on N3, and there was no kill that night, suggesting that they tried to off Q. Plus as I said before his playing has been town to me.

(4)However, having read through parts of the thread again I'm suddenly unsure on Surge. Reading the death post of Weldar, we can see that his character's brother, Isaac Leventhorpe, is still unaccounted for, making him the last mafian. Whereas Surge's character is a woman...I think.

So I must Unvote: Surge

do you think it would benefit us to lynch nobody this phase? That way Sah could scan Q tonight, Q could roleblock Surge. If there's still a kill Surge is clear, if Sah dies or is scan-blocked then Q is trying to hide his alignment?

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Wed Aug 06, 2014 4:30 pm

Shit I think I've figured something out here - give me a bit to get home and write this up

Unvote

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Wed Aug 06, 2014 4:30 pm

Shit I think I've figured something out here - give me a bit to get home and write this up

Unvote

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Wed Aug 06, 2014 4:30 pm

Smartphone with the double post. Does that mean surge is at -1 votes? :B

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Wed Aug 06, 2014 6:08 pm

Ugh, sorry, got distracted.  So it turns out I'm an idiot and missed one massive piece of logic in my earlier 'raa raa this game is solved' text wall.  This is going to be a bit of a 180. Observe:

We've been assuming that Sah's cop claim is valid (and that Raya is survivor) because Sah apparently scanned Raya as survivor.  With Raya verifying, she seemed to match up to Sah's claim: no way in hell could he randomly guess that.

Then this happened:

DRTJR was lynched! He was Your Role is: "Avery Waldegrave" the Role Cop, alignment Mafia.- TheTJ

Ignoring TJ's hilarious quoting of a role PM here (Modkill TJ plz?) this is kind of revealing: The mafia had a rolecop - they could learn someone's exact role every night.  To pontificate, rolecops reveal a role's title and possibly PM description (the latter usually in more complex games where title doesn't reveal power directly).  A rolescanner would scan me as Roleblocker, or Fed as Jailer, for example.  Raya would be scanned as Survivor.  

The classic move for a mafian faking a Cop claim is to 'verify' townies that are safe bets and aren't really developing to be possible lynch targets - that way bussing is not necessary (ideal when the scum team has already lost two members before Day 3), and the fake-cop isn't significantly hampering the mafia's chances of winning.  This matches with Sah's play completely - he's been scanning safe all game.  I think DRTJR scanned Raya as the Survivor role.  When the pressure was on and Sah claimed, either by his own cleverness or a comrade's advisement Sah listed DRTJR's scan targets and said they were town, as none scanned as Cult Leader or Serial Killer or anything that obvious.  Just seeing the role-name list Sah  included Raya among the other claims (I've seen people mistake Survivor as townie before, though it's uncommon.)  When Raya called him out on it, either he or a teammate noticed the mistake, and he corrected by saying Raya is a survivor.   

So there's a simple question here:  Is it more likely that a cop would scan a survivor as their exact role title - something game breaking we've never had in our games before - or that Sahrimnir was connected to a player who has a power to scan someone's role title to the exact level of specificity that he claims to have scanned Raya (DRTJR, who we know was a mafia rolecop)?

Cops NEVER scan third parties (or any role) as their exact title like that, it would be absolutely game-breaking as it would verify both at once.  Even in Game 10, when the SK died IIRC I had them flip Serial Killer, but only due to the fact that they were part of a two-man mafia once the shrink joined the Killer - had the SK been scanned, he'd return Alighnment: None so as to give the single-role a fighting chance. A Survivor, similarly, wouldn't be scanned Survivor as doing so removes the majority of threat to the survivor and instantly validates the cop - a survivor could simply say 'yeah, I'm the survivor' and that's the end of it - the mafia won't bother to kill them because they need to get rid of the town's power roles, and the town won't lynch them because it's clear they're harmless. 

Without a rolecop in the game this could go either way, but with one confirmed this is huge: Sah's move isn't a perfect guess regarding Raya's alignment, it's a genuine slip.   So I think this is our man and our best bet today - Sah is much lower risk than a loverlynch, and given the above I might be barking up the wrong tree with SurgePox.

Vote: Sahrimnir

I'd be open to a nolynch as well if that's what people prefer, but this logic is fairly solid and with the risk that a mafian/SK and a solo cultist are both still alive I'd rather go for a high killing-role suspect now while it's totally in our hands and we have marginal room for error.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Sahrimnir on Wed Aug 06, 2014 6:33 pm

Details about my Raya scan:
TJ at first gave me Raya's alignment as townie (because as he explained to me afterwards, he was thinking in terms of mafia or not mafia). When Raya responded with disbelief to my role-claim, he apparently panicked because he realized he had given me inaccurate information. He messaged me both through PM and on Skype with a correction and an apology. "Alignment: Other" or something like that would probably be a better way to tell me that Raya is neither townie nor mafia, but I don't think TJ was in a state of mind to think of that at the time (he could have said "Alignment: Other" to begin with, but as I said he apparently just didn't consider that).

So is this last post a genuine theory by Quaetam trying to find the last mafian? Or a last-ditch attempt to get rid of what might be the biggest threat to him right now?

If you lynch me and discover that I've been telling the truth, he could just claim to have made an honest mistake and try to get a lynch on Surge tomorrow. Or he actually is making an honest mistake and we should be lynching Surge? There's no way for me to know for sure yet, but I think I'm going to keep my vote where it is.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Wed Aug 06, 2014 6:57 pm

TJ at first gave me Raya's alignment as townie (because as he explained to me afterwards, he was thinking in terms of mafia or not mafia). When Raya responded with disbelief to my role-claim, he apparently panicked because he realized he had given me inaccurate information. He messaged me both through PM and on Skype with a correction and an apology. "Alignment: Other" or something like that would probably be a better way to tell me that Raya is neither townie nor mafia, but I don't think TJ was in a state of mind to think of that at the time (he could have said "Alignment: Other" to begin with, but as I said he apparently just didn't consider that).

All you've done with this minor text-fence is restate what you already claimed before - that the host corrected you - and add that you agree it's weird.  I get that that's your story, but this means nothing - just saying 'the host told me so' isn't validating anything.  So once again, you're proposing that the host both allowed a survivor to scan as her title that he then messed up and not only forgot but had her scan INNO.

It's both unbalanced and illogical - from a game balance perspective it's broken, and from a logic standpoint it doesn't make sense that a game host would have a role scan as an unusual alignment only to completely miss a claim like that. 

So I'm calling bullshit: This is incredibly straightforward and an application of occam's razor - the simplest answer is the right one.  You got your knowledge of Raya's role title from DRTJR - who we know for a FACT can scan people for their rolenames. 

If you lynch me and discover that I've been telling the truth, he could just claim to have made an honest mistake and try to get a lynch on Surge tomorrow. Or he actually is making an honest mistake and we should be lynching Surge? There's no way for me to know for sure yet, but I think I'm going to keep my vote where it is.

The same logic is being thrown your way right now, and even stronger: Not only did you vote on me and vanish this phase, you were content to let me build up a loverlynch, only posting when I turned around and saw you as possible scum.  

If you're actually considering lynching Surge now, why has your vote been on me this whole time? You lynch me, then tomorrow you shrug and say "well, it must be Surge".  Hell, you could just show up tomorrow, say 'well, I scanned Surge mafia, so it's him' and vote that route. 

So is this last post a genuine theory by Quaetam trying to find the last mafian? Or a last-ditch attempt to get rid of what might be the biggest threat to him right now? - Sah

Finally, to defend myself here, this is blatantly wrong: if I were mafian, DarkFalco would be the biggest threat as Vigilante. 

Also, let me remind you that before I realized this possibility I actually was asking you to scan me if you recall.  You're basically suggesting I scum, meaning I asked you to scan me and somehow forgot I'd scan guilty and be done for. The godfather is DEAD, remember.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:05 pm

Quaetam, if you read two pages over I thought the same as you, that Sah was using DRTJR's results to claim cop. However, Raya came in and told us that her alignment is Survivor. Even if that's illogical, and not how I would run third-party cop scanning results, why would Raya make something like that up?

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:06 pm

Raya wrote:
Catterick wrote:Finally Sah, remember he's not confirmed, his cop claim can be easily manufactured by the mafia. In fact, if that was the case I can almost see a scum slip from him: remember when he told us that TJ had told him that Raya was the survivor. If he's just a regular cop, why did it say "survivor" instead of "third-party" or "none?" The mafia did have a role cop, however, so that's how he could've known Raya's role, rather than simply alignment. And we did have a night where Sah was blocked, and there was no kill. It's worth thinking about.

The cop role reads alignments, and my alignment is 'Survivor'. Third party is generally a term for non townie/mafian roles, it's not an alignment in itself. This is why I believe Sah is the cop, he correctly named my Survivor alignment. The odds of doing that if he can't genuinely scan are pretty low.
Sorry, this.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  SurgePox on Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:24 pm

What if there are rolecops on both sides?

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:26 pm

Quaetam, if you read two pages over I thought the same as you, that Sah was using DRTJR's results to claim cop. However, Raya came in and told us that her alignment is Survivor. Even if that's illogical, and not how I would run third-party cop scanning results, why would Raya make something like that up? - Catterick

That's a good point - now things are a little murkier than I thought. Then to be concise about our options:

A) Sah is cop, sah scanned Raya as "Alignment: Survivor"
     - the skepticism here being that TJ would not only allow Raya to scan survivor, but also that he'd then forget he made that unusual decision and that he'd have her scan ino over third party.
B) Sah is mafia, DRTJR scanned Raya as a survivor and Sah outed in a slip
     - skepticism here being that it's a crazy coincidence for a mafia fakeclaiming cop to claim he scanned someone as a survivor only to have that person's alignmet ACTUALLY BE survivor.

I need to think about this a little.

What if there are rolecops on both sides? -Surge

I doubt that.  If Sah was a town rolecop he'd have claimed rolecop and been honest.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Sahrimnir on Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:29 pm

Quaetam wrote:All you've done with this minor text-fence is restate what you already claimed before - that the host corrected you - and add that you agree it's weird.  I get that that's your story, but this means nothing - just saying 'the host told me so' isn't validating anything.  So once again, you're proposing that the host both allowed a survivor to scan as her title that he then messed up and not only forgot but had her scan INNO.

It's both unbalanced and illogical - from a game balance perspective it's broken, and from a logic standpoint it doesn't make sense that a game host would have a role scan as an unusual alignment only to completely miss a claim like that.
My point was that yes, it's illogical, because TJ was probably too stressed out to be thinking logically. If it hadn't been for Raya not accepting my role-claim, he probably would have been content naming her a townie.

The same logic is being thrown your way right now, and even stronger: Not only did you vote on me and vanish this phase, you were content to let me build up a loverlynch, only posting when I turned around and saw you as possible scum.  

If you're actually considering lynching Surge now, why has your vote been on me this whole time? You lynch me, then tomorrow you shrug and say "well, it must be Surge".  Hell, you could just show up tomorrow, say 'well, I scanned Surge mafia, so it's him' and vote that route.
Well, this one's easy to answer. I know that I'm a townie. I don't know which one of you is the mafian. I was content to let either one of you get lynched based on what the rest think is the best course of action, but obviously I'm going to defend myself when I'm falsely accused.

So is this last post a genuine theory by Quaetam trying to find the last mafian? Or a last-ditch attempt to get rid of what might be the biggest threat to him right now? - Sah

Finally, to defend myself here, this is blatantly wrong: if I were mafian, DarkFalco would be the biggest threat as Vigilante.
Well, that depends. The vigilante can kill someone, but I can find out who should be killed. If DF nightkills the wrong person, she would actually be helping the mafia. Also, there's no way you could push a lynch for DF at this point. The best course of action if you're a mafian would be to get me lynched and try to direct DF to Surge.

Also, let me remind you that before I realized this possibility I actually was asking you to scan me if you recall.  You're basically suggesting I scum, meaning I asked you to scan me and somehow forgot I'd scan guilty and be done for. The godfather is DEAD, remember.
That's a good point... Unless this was your plan all along, pretending to suddenly realize I might be scum and get me out of the way before I can actually scan you.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Sahrimnir on Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:30 pm

Quaetam wrote:A) Sah is cop, sah scanned Raya as "Alignment: Survivor"
     - the skepticism here being that TJ would not only allow Raya to scan survivor, but also that he'd then forget he made that unusual decision and that he'd have her scan ino over third party.
I think you're still getting it wrong. The way I understood it, he made that decision after Raya reacted to my role-claim.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:45 pm

Sorry Quaetam but at this point I don't think it's in the town's interest to go for a no-lynch, so Vote: Quaetam.

Sah's been very open about who he's scanned and every choice makes sense from a townie cop's perspective to me.

If you have any last info, you might want to share it here, this isn't a 100% vote by any means. I'll be here until the day is over.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:54 pm

That's fine - I'm willing to take the fall if it'll help seal a town win. Give me a few minutes and I'll come up with a plan of action for what you guys should do when I flip.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:59 pm

Actually Unvote: Q

Vote: Sah

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Wed Aug 06, 2014 10:05 pm

argh I just don't know. I was thinking, if sah is mafian after q dies he could kill me and surge, then all would be left would be him and Raya and DF, and DF has been afk, and I don't know if Survivor counts towards the town/mafia balance.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  SurgePox on Wed Aug 06, 2014 10:10 pm

Let's do this. Together.

Vote: sah

If nothing else, I am going to point out that sah has been the most vocal about an unwillingness to be lynched. Everyone else, including myself AND Catterick who are loverbonded, have been willing to take the fall.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Wed Aug 06, 2014 10:21 pm

I just don't know... if Sah is innocent, then Q could do the same thing, kill us and be left with Raya and an absent Dark Falco.

Being lovers is really a liability in the endgame since it kills two townies quickly.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Wed Aug 06, 2014 10:37 pm

Also shouldn't the phase have ended already. I'm not entirely in the right timezone so it's hard for me but I thought it ended at the start of this hour.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  SurgePox on Wed Aug 06, 2014 10:41 pm

We at least need some time for the europeans to get out a response.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Wed Aug 06, 2014 10:43 pm

They should stay up all night like me. Bloody casuals. Razz 

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Wed Aug 06, 2014 11:33 pm

Ok people, listen up, I want to run this by you, give me your honest opinion:
-------------------------------

Pending DarkFalco showing up, surely the way to solve this is to lynch Q today (so if he is mafia, he can't roleblock during the night) and if he flips town, shoot Sah during the night? In that instance, all Sah could do would be to kill DF pre-emptively, proving to the town he's scum and getting lynched the next day.

On the small off chance that Q flips town, Sah is innocent too, and somebody kills DF to frame him, Sah could be scanning SurgePox just to make sure he's townie.

What does everybody think?

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

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