Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Wed Aug 06, 2014 11:49 pm

Unvote: Sah

I'm confident this plan can work so I'm going to go ahead with it in part, second part will be voting Q obviously

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  SurgePox on Thu Aug 07, 2014 12:18 am

What if it's Raya, though.

It would be a bit strange but it could be the case that all mafs are dead and we are waiting out the SK.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:01 am

If it's Raya I eat my hat, and we bitch at TJ seeing as a SK that scans as a Survivor is really misleading.

I think that's the slimmest of outside chances. Had Raya been a SK, I think she would've been happy that Sah scanned her as townie, rather than call him out on it? And I think she'd have killed at least once. I mean, not killing as the SK is hardly playing the game at all, and we know she's always wanted to be a SK.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  TheTJ on Thu Aug 07, 2014 4:32 am

Oh, I made another mistake. My end game is getting sloppy.

Day Phase extended to midnight tonight (17.5 hours) by virtue of me thinking that was when I had set it in the first place.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Thu Aug 07, 2014 6:04 am

A few quick thoughts here before I head to work - I'll try to type up a more robust post during the slow hours before my team meeting with our lynch and nightphase possibilities.

Regarding Raya as SK - Cat said it best.  She'd have no reason to not be killing at all this game.  I get the idea of a SK pulling a gambit and just not making any kills to appear totally clean but I don't buy it when the alternative is a quicker win.  Also we have a vigilante - the possibility of three shots in one night is rough.

Pending DarkFalco showing up, surely the way to solve this is to lynch Q today (so if he is mafia, he can't roleblock during the night) and if he flips town, shoot Sah during the night? - Cat

Doesn't matter if the remaining guy can block - As long as we lynch someone today and the game continues, under no circumstance should DarkFalco shoot anybody tonight. 

I'm really concerned with this plan: After I'm lynched, if DarkFalco shoots the wrong person, the killer takes their shot, and the lovers die somewhere in the mix, we lose the game in a 1v1, so she has to hold fire.  This also means DF should not shoot the lovers in any circumstance, as the killer will have a chance to end the game instantly by choosing to shoot someone else - that's WIFOM for the killer and not an opportunity we want to offer.  I think I'm fairly confident it's Sah so but I don't want to take the chance of the game ending tonight.

We at least need some time for the europeans to get out a response.
- Surge

I agree - I'm also really interested in hearing from DarkFalco.  Her proving she's around could simplify our course of action here.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Thu Aug 07, 2014 11:20 am

Quaetam wrote:Doesn't matter if the remaining guy can block - As long as we lynch someone today and the game continues, under no circumstance should DarkFalco shoot anybody tonight. 

I'm really concerned with this plan: After I'm lynched, if DarkFalco shoots the wrong person, the killer takes their shot, and the lovers die somewhere in the mix, we lose the game in a 1v1, so she has to hold fire.  This also means DF should not shoot the lovers in any circumstance, as the killer will have a chance to end the game instantly by choosing to shoot someone else - that's WIFOM for the killer and not an opportunity we want to offer.  I think I'm fairly confident it's Sah so but I don't want to take the chance of the game ending tonight.
From what I understand, that has the possibility of happening even if the vig doesn't shoot.

If you die and are innocent, we're left with 5. If the killer kills the lovers, it will be 3, and if the killer IS Sah, it will then be him against DF - I don't know if Raya as the Survivor counts towards the town mafia balance. Even if she does, who knows if she'll stand with the town or mafia at that point - she'll win either way. And with DF absent, she might not be so clued in and let the mafia slip away.

If we can get a message to DF to shoot Sah however, that eliminates our number one target along with you. It's a question of target priorities: do we really think the possibility of Raya, DF, or Surge being the killer is significant enough to sit on our hands? Even if, as I said above, holding fire could actually be just as damaging?

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Thu Aug 07, 2014 11:38 am

I have a huge post coming in eventually detailing every single possibility and my recommendations for after I'm lynched or for if Sah is lynched and inno - for now however:

If DarkFalco is absent, we might actually WANT to have her blocked tonight just to eliminate any possibility that she accidentally shoots a lover.  The risk is present whether we're relying on her kill or whether we're relying on her to lynch correctly.  If you want me to block DF, I'm okay with that, but let's make up our mind - My current plan was to declare that I'm blocking nobody - that way you know I'm not using my power to try to BS my way out of a lynch or something.  We know she cannot possibly be scum because she was blocked last night and a kill still went through.

As for Raya, Survivor doesn't count towards town mafia balance ever, they simply win if they're alive when game ends.  Granted survivors also never have alignment: survivor, but I think changing endgame balance would just be too much.  

Because of this we know the game continues with three people left.  I think the possibility that Sah and I are both innocent is significant enough that holding off on a shot is our safest option, whether I'm lynched or Sah is.  If we're wrong today, as long as we guarantee we reach tomorrow we should be in good shape. 

I'm fairly confident out best strategy is to just lynch one today, hold off tonight to guard against the edge cases, and unless something unusual happens we lynch the other tomorrow.  In either case the only way it can go wrong is if we guess wrong twice in a row.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  SurgePox on Thu Aug 07, 2014 12:02 pm

I'm a little hesitant if I even want to put Quaetam or Sah in this position. The problem is that tomorrow, with no vig shot overnight, the game could have one townie (DF) one potential maf (Q) and one survivor (Raya) with the townie not being so active, it wouldn't be hard for Quaetam or Sah to win the game right there with the survivor. I think it's essential actually that we get Vig confirmation ASAP and line up an overnight shot, kill Q today, and kill Sah overnight. Q can save himself by roleblocking vig.

I wish it didn't have to be this way, I am leaning toward Sah being mafian moreso than Q, and the two of them moreso than anyone else, but we only get two safe kills before tomorrow and this is the only way to do it. It doesn't feel like we have any solid, certain to win options anymore.

Until we do get that Vig confirmation, though, I would rather just vote Sah since he reads as the more likely mafian. We need it though because we basically lose if Q is mafian and we can't kill him right now, and we can't do that without night options.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Thu Aug 07, 2014 12:18 pm

To be honest Surge where you lean Sah I lean Q. He's said a few weird things this phase.

He started joining my bandwagon on Surge, then shifted to Sah once I abandoned it. He and Sah openly threw suspicion on one and another - the first time all game Q has debated in such a way - but with his latest post he says that "the possibility that Sah and I are both innocent is significant enough that holding off on a shot is our safest option, whether I'm lynched or Sah is." What changed since last night? I somewhat believe that his push on Sah was a last ditch attempt to save himself, and his goal now is to survive the lynch based on the logic that him roleblocking DF is in the town's interest.

His fears over my plan of lynchQshootSah make even less sense when the other possibilities for who the killer is - DarkFalco and Raya - were both publically discounted by him. That leaves Surge, and Surge if mafia obviously can't shoot the lovers, which is our main concern.

Finally, doesn't the phrase "the possibility that Sah and I are both innocent" sound a little off? Wouldn't a townie say "the possibility that Sah is innocent (too)" taking his own innocence for granted?

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  SurgePox on Thu Aug 07, 2014 12:27 pm

I agree that Q is suspicious, he's my second best pick, but what wins me over is that Sah is pretty much the only player not willing to be lynched. Only the mafian here would absolutely be adverse to being lynched since they lose if they die, whereas townies can die and win at this point so long as we catch the last mafian.

On the last point, actually taking ones innocence for granted is kind of a soft scumtell, in my book. I am guilty of that scumslip a lot in justifying my own defenses when I'm scum, because scum cannot let themselves die under most circumstances. Most players have adopted the rhetoric that, of course one knows their own position, but since everyone playing is advancing a position of innocence, it makes no sense to describe your own perspective. So people usually try to describe their own innocence in the objective sense, trying to say what conclusions the town can make instead of advancing a conclusion only they would have certainty of. Weldar does the same thing too, even last game when he was inno, advancing the case vs himself understanding the townview as being the one that matters instead of his own view. (I think?)

Unwillingness to die is what sells sah for me.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Thu Aug 07, 2014 12:49 pm

Well, let's hear from Sah. Could be that he is willing to be lynched, it just didn't come up because he wasn't in any danger when he was online last night.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Raya on Thu Aug 07, 2014 1:27 pm

Current vote count because this is getting crazy:

Quaetam (2): Sahrimnir, Raya
Sahrimnir (2): Quaetam, Surgepox
Yet to vote: DF, Catt

Catt is right in his logic of me not being the SK. So far we’ve only had one extra night kill this game, which means that if there’s an SK they’re either inactive or consistently getting blocked. Since Q has verified not blocking me every single night and I’ve been an active player, I’m can’t be the SK- and as Catt said, if I had that role, why would I refrain from killing? At this point in the game making a kill every night would be in my best interests. And has been pointed out before, having the SK scan as a survivor is horribly broken, and TJ is a good enough GM to not let something as unbalanced as that be a role.
 
In regards to whether or not DF should kill tonight we're in a sticky situation. Say either Q or Sah are lynched and they turn up townie. That means at night we'll have 3 town, 1 mafia and 1 survivor. DF has two targets to choose from: Q/Sah and Surge. She only has a 50% of choosing the correct suspect to target. If she chooses wrong the mafia win the game. If she *doesn't* kill however, the town can only win if the last mafian is Surge. If it's Q/Sah they just need to target Surge/Catt to win the game. All the mafia need to do to win the game tonight is kill a townie.

Basically, what's the bigger risk: gambling on DF making the correct 50% choice, or gambling on if the last mafian is Surge?

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Thu Aug 07, 2014 1:44 pm

Phone post go.  First, of course Sah will claim willingness to be lynched now that we're highlighting it as the key to townie play, Cat Razz  Keep in mind that his only productive and active in-thread activity this game has been to defend himself.  

To answer a couple points I originally voted on Surge when I hadnt thought of the possibility that Sahrimnir just got Raya's role title from the known rolescanner (the theory I just brought up) - because of this Surge was our best lead at the time.  Regarding not taking my innocent for granted, Sas surge said I don't value my own life here - I value making whatever decisions will give us the maximum degree of success.  

I'm okay with taking the hit for the town as long as doing so won't give the mafian a quick path to victory -- thus my problem with the current plan is that relying on a shot from the vig opens us to the possibility that she shoots wrong - especially since she's been inactive and probably not paying attention - and provided she and the mafia don't kill the same person at that point, the mafia wins.  

In the scenario of a miss lunch today, is there any risk inherent if we have three or four people alive tomorrow?  If not, we should play it safe and leave to the lynch tomorrow to make sure we make the correct decision.  

EDIT BECAUSE NINJA: Basically what Raya said. Well, I think having a SK *OR* a survivor scan as survivor is broken Razz But SK moreso.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Raya on Thu Aug 07, 2014 1:58 pm

Quaetam wrote:In the scenario of a miss lunch today, is there any risk inherent if we have three or four people alive tomorrow?

Well, more people will be hungry for a start Razz

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:03 pm

Ok, first.

TJ, please PM DarkFalco to remind her that this game is still going on. She's crucial here.

Now, the only issue I see is if DF doesn't turn up. If she does, she's a smart player, she will at least look at this thread before shooting. So all we have to do is post this:

Spoiler:
DarkFalco, please shoot Sahrimnir tonight. Whatever you do, don't shoot Surge or Catterick, they are the Lovers. Thanks.

so she can't miss it. Now this:

To answer a couple points I originally voted on Surge when I hadnt thought of the possibility that Sahrimnir just got Raya's role title from the known rolescanner (the theory I just brought up) - because of this Surge was our best lead at the time. - Q

big FoS here. I posted that same theory on Sah, albeit condensed into one paragraph, here . Yet you still voted for Surge until I broke off him, then went for Sah. Are you saying you didn't read what I wrote? You're making it seem like the Sah is mafia theory is all your idea, a bolt from the blue so to speak, but I said it first and instead of going with it, you joined the bandwagon on Surge.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Thu Aug 07, 2014 3:12 pm

TJ, please PM DarkFalco to remind her that this game is still going on. She's crucial here. - Cat

Definitely. 

But again, if the game isn't over with today's lynch DF needs to hold her fire tonight - As Raya and I have said time and again if DF shoots Sah or myself after the other is lynched, and if we're somehow wrong about both Sah and I, *and* the lovers die in the mix, the game ENDS outright with a town loss.  If we reach tomorrow with three or more people alive the game can't be lost, so let's leave our fate solidly in our hands.  This is accounting for all possibilities.

DarkFalco should also read this, especially after my flip if I'm lynched.

Spoiler:
DarkFalco - if you log on, don't shoot anyone tonight - even if it's me lynched and Sah is the best target. If I'm alive, I will not block you.

As I said before I'm going to whip up possibilities before the phase ends today in the event of either situation (my lynch, or a sah lynch that becomes a miss lunch). I've been working on this all day lol. Give me a minute to take the bus home and I'll get right to work finishing it.

Also   
we're still sitting at a tie so I'm actually really considering what a novote would do - it should almost be like a lylo situation, the mafia gets to make a kill but that just eliminates a lynch possibility on our end.  But that would really be the same as lynching and having DF hold fire - the mafian either kills someone who isn't a lover, leaving 5 people tomorrow and a roughly repeat scenario, or they kill the lovers and there are only 4 left.  We might as well get a lynch today to knock out a suspect, force the mafia to narrow it down further, and lynch the last remaining suspect tomorrow.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Thu Aug 07, 2014 3:54 pm

Quaetam wrote:But again, if the game isn't over with today's lynch DF needs to hold her fire tonight - As Raya and I have said time and again if DF shoots Sah or myself after the other is lynched, and if we're somehow wrong about both Sah and I, *and* the lovers die in the mix, the game ENDS outright with a town loss.  If we reach tomorrow with three or more people alive the game can't be lost, so let's leave our fate solidly in our hands.  This is accounting for all possibilities.
And I maintain that holding fire is just as dangerous: we've established that Sah is by far the most likely mafian after you, and if he knows DF isn't shooting him, he can kill the lovers tonight at his leisure. At this point there's him DF and Raya left, and Raya as survivor can't be counted on, she might just side with the mafia for the hell of it, or Sah could push the blame on Raya to get DF to lynch her. Also it would be 1:1 town:mafia, and 1 survivor, wouldn't that just end the game anyway?

Also Vote:Quaetam

just to get a solid lynch for today. I'm going to go over the thread (again, sigh) and review Sah's posts, but right now I'm leaning Q.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Thu Aug 07, 2014 4:03 pm

And I maintain that holding fire is just as dangerous: we've established that Sah is by far the most likely mafian after you, and if he knows DF isn't shooting him, he can kill the lovers tonight at his leisure. At this point there's him DF and Raya left, and Raya as survivor can't be counted on, she might just side with the mafia for the hell of it, or Sah could push the blame on Raya to get DF to lynch her. Also it would be 1:1 town:mafia, and 1 survivor, wouldn't that just end the game anyway? - Cattericj

No game ends in a 1 v 1 v 1 - we'd still have the dayphase to argue.

Though I hadn't thought if Raya just fucking the town like that, ugh. So it really comes down to this: do we risk shooting the wrong person and insta-losing or is it better to shoot Sah/

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  SurgePox on Thu Aug 07, 2014 4:40 pm

I wouldn't want to risk putting the game completely out of our hands. It's better to get a shot and if DF actually shows up and is willing to shoot Sah then this is worth lynching Q today to get the shot on Sah tonight. HOWEVER, if we DON'T get the vig nightshot confirmed then we ought to treat this phase like LyLo and go for the single best target only.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  SurgePox on Thu Aug 07, 2014 4:42 pm

Holy run-on sentence. Let me try that again, with some clarity: It's better to get a shot. If DF actually shows up, and is willing to shoot Sah, then this is worth lynching Q today to get the shot on Sah tonight. Q could roleblock and save himself so he has to die today if we get a confirmed shot tonight.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Thu Aug 07, 2014 4:54 pm

Doubleposting this because I accidentally included an emoji so the submission script cut off the rest of my message. And then my phone died. Retyping the end of this on my laptop.

And I maintain that holding fire is just as dangerous: we've established that Sah is by far the most likely mafian after you, and if he knows DF isn't shooting him, he can kill the lovers tonight at his leisure. At this point there's him DF and Raya left, and Raya as survivor can't be counted on, she might just side with the mafia for the hell of it, or Sah could push the blame on Raya to get DF to lynch her. Also it would be 1:1 town:mafia, and 1 survivor, wouldn't that just end the game anyway?
- Cattericj

No game ends in a 1 v 1 v 1 unless two 1s are hostile (SK and mafia, etc) - Survivor is neutral so we'd still have the dayphase to argue.

Though I hadn't thought if Raya just fucking the town like that, ugh. So it really comes down to this: do we risk shooting the wrong person and insta-losing if the lovers also die, or is it better to lynch Sah/me now and risk leaving things up to Raya's whim tomorrow.  I think shooting the wrong person is by and far our biggest fear - we could lose the game tonight if that happens.  since Raya has been somewhere between scumhunting and just kind of idling along all game I don't think she'd go for the betrayal but you never know. I'd rather leave things up to Raya to make a decision tomorrow than risk not even having a tomorrow. 

Regarding DF being convinced to lynch raya - if we're worried that she could be convinced by Sah to lynch Raya then I don't think we should be leaving an outright *kill* in her hands tonight.  Like I said, that could end things much quicker if she makes a blatant mistake.  There's a better chance of her making an informed decision tomorrow than there is more or less immediately now.

NL could potentially avert the scenario entirely: It perpetuates a stalemate and forces the scum to kill someone, narrowing down the list of options.  The worst case scenario has the scum killing the lovers, forcing a 1v1v2, where even if Raya and Sah were to team up for an implicit 2v2 against me / DF that's not an instant win because DarkFalco could shoot Sahrimnir that night and guarantee a town win.  Short of that, if there's a kill we can narrow things down, otherwise we open up more time to discuss.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Thu Aug 07, 2014 4:57 pm

Holy run-on sentence. Let me try that again, with some clarity: It's better to get a shot. If DF actually shows up, and is willing to shoot Sah, then this is worth lynching Q today to get the shot on Sah tonight. Q could roleblock and save himself so he has to die today if we get a confirmed shot tonight. - NinjaPox

Yeah I see what you're saying - It's the shot I'm concerned with because of the maf instawin chance that a misshot presents - I think DF would be better off holding sow e're guaranteed to reach dayphase after a mislynch today.  Are we confident enough in Sahrimnir that we can rely on DF to shoot him and assume we'll enter the next dayphase if he's town?

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Catterick on Thu Aug 07, 2014 5:23 pm

Are we confident enough in Sahrimnir that we can rely on DF to shoot him and assume we'll enter the next dayphase if he's town?
Yes, I think so. You said yourself that DF can't be the killer as you blocked her and there was a kill. Raya you discounted also - SK scanning survivor is broken. That leaves Sah Surge and me. If Surge is the killer he needs to carry me to the absolute end to win due to the lover bond, and vice versa. Therefore, your nightmare night-phase projection of the lovers dying can't happen, unless DF completely neglects to look at the thread and shoots me or Surge - very unlikely, she'll most likely just be afk or follow our instructions, not go for some bizarre third option.

And leaving the kill in DF's hands is simple: just write a gigantic message giving her the instructions - shoot Sah, under no circumstances shoot Catt, Surge or Raya.

But we need to lynch you tonight Q, for the same reason you led the lynches on Weldar and Minby last game: Weldar was a roleblocker like yourself, and that's a common mafia power that could neutralise DF's vigkill forever at this stage if we let it live. Same with Minby as the driver in 26 also. NL at this point is too risky also, it will just give the mafia a free kill on the lovers.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Thu Aug 07, 2014 9:27 pm

Here's my infodump I've been promising.  Some of the thoughts are a little outdated as I wrote them this morning and we've been doing a lot of brainstorming since then.

As I stated before I went to sleep last night, I'm willing to take the fall for the town if people deem it necessary, although I'd obviously prefer a Sah lynch as I believe he's scum.  Because I'm exceedingly busy tonight and not sure if I'll have the chance to post too much more this phase, I want to leave my thoughts here for how we should proceed in any lynch scenario: 

Our Options


Option A:  Lynch Me - I will flip town roleblocker on death.  Remaining players, ranked in order of my suspicion of them:

Sahrimnir - Reasons stated
SurgePox - Mildly suspicious play but the way he's gone about it today ranks him lower than Sah for me.  
Raya
- Very marginal chance for SK but I highly doubt this is the case.
Catterick - Playing townread - tied to surge so a lynch on one eliminates both anyways - thus he's not considered in my thoughts.
DarkFalco - Cleared by my block last night in the presence of a killing role.  

As I've said and backed with my vote, I believe Sahrimnir is scum. Just look at how he's playing - zero contribution whatsoever other than to secure a seemingly easy lynch on me and just coast.  However, after my death, DarkFalco, do not shoot anyone!  On the off-chance I'm wrong about Sahrimnir, if DF and the hostile killer each shoot a player, and one of these shots kills the lovers, three people will die at night.  If this happens, and DF is wrong in her guess and hits an innocent, this would leave us with a 1v1 where the town loses, and we won't have a retaliation chance tomorrow.

In no scenario here will there be a guaranteed lynch - as long as we can't trust Sahrimnir completely as cop, which we can't, we can't rely on a scan because he'll try to fake it if he's alive.  My best judgement for each survival scenario after my death tomorrow:

(1) - DarkFalco killed, Raya killed, Lovers killed - My recommendation: Sah (or Surge/Raya if you believe Sah's innocent I guess) - DF killed is most likely as of the three players that would survive (Raya, Surge/Cat, Sah) all have come under mild suspicion today.  I feel Surge is less likely scum than Sahrimnir and Raya's SK chance is such an edge case based on how she's playing, so a Sah lynch is the choice for me.  

For Raya dying, the same logic applies but it's even clearer as DF is totally clear (having been blocked last night when we knew there was a kill) For the Lovers dying, we're in almost the same situation as Raya dying but it's even clearer as Surge is higher on my suspect list than Raya.  Again, I don't think an edge case merits worrying about (the whole Raya may be SK thing)

(2) - No Kill - less likely than the above three cases but more likely than the following.  This kind of gambit is always a possibility - it's the exact move I played on the final day of G17 as the Overlord.  My recommendation: No Lynch, but pressure people to see if you can establish leads. A 5 person game with 1 scum killer is ordinarily not MYLO (lynch wrong and lose), however with lovers in the game this WOULD be mylo unless one of the lovers is the killer.  The best town move in a MYLO is a no-lynch, forcing the killer to make a difficult decision and narrow down the town's possible leads for them.  Based on who dies it should be relatively easy for the town to narrow down the killer.

(3) - edge case: Sahrimnir Killed - My recommendation: Raya for pure mathematics, but think about it a little. If I'm out and wrong about Sah, and the killer takes out Sah to sew confusion, this is the only scenario where I'd recommend we consider lynching Surge/Cat - but Raya may be preferable.  A Raya lynch would allow DF one night to shoot Cat/Surge if we lynch wrong.  This scenario will require a good deal of analysis so think freely - I'm not comfortable with the Raya = SK idea, but I'm also really hesitant about Surge or Cat as well.  I don't see Sah dying in any scenario because he'll be the obvious lynch target after my death, but if he does, please be active and think about this. 

Option B - Lynch Sahrimnir


Ideally the game ends right here and we win
. This would be the first time I live through two games in a row Very Happy
If lynching Sahrimnir doesn't end the game, we're left with the following players, ranked in order of general town suspicion on them:

Quaetam - Yes, I know I'm town, blah blah blah, but I'd say that if I was mafia too, so I'll make this thing from an unbiased perspective. 
SurgePox - I'd consider him more plausible again if Sah flips town. 
Raya - Her edge case also becomes more plausible if Sah flips town - but it's still less likely. 
Catterick
DarkFalco - Cleared by my block last night in the presence of a killing role.  

Once again, DarkFalco, do not shoot anyone!  By the same exact reasoning as above, DF shooting someone would leave the possibility that she hits the wrong person, the killer kills, somewhere in here the lovers die, and suddenly the game is over.

Unless you all feel you want me to block someone, I'm saying this now:  I will not block anyone in this scenario - that way I can't use my block as an excuse to claim I've stopped a kill and mislead people, and simultaneously the mafian can't just no-kill and pretend I blocked DF or something.  If I don't act tonight I eliminate a large portion of the WIFOM surrounding the use of the blocker power and no-kill gambits by the mafia.  

Once again there won't be a guaranteed lynch, and these will all seem a bit silly coming from me simply because I'm one of the top suspects and right now I believe Sah's the last mafian - but the overall approach doesn't change.  

(1) DarkFalco killed / Lovers killed - Leaving Quaetam, Surge, Cat, Raya / Quaetam, DF, Raya - Surge/Raya respectively (or me if you believe I'm scum) - If you believe I'm scum this is where you obviously lynch me as a parallel to the options in my lynch above.  I'd argue lynching Surge if DF dies or Raya if Lovers die simply based on my suspicion list in that order.

(2) Raya killed
- Leaving Quaetam, Surge, Cat, DF - Lynch me, no question asked - I'll go down and flip as town to remove your doubts, leaving the lovers and the vig.  DF can shoot Surge for the win as last town survivor.  Alternatively you could lynch surge but I understand you'd have to trust me completely.

(4) No Kill - No Lynch - again, a 5 man dayphase with lovers around is a lylo unless one of the lovers is scum - best move is to not lynch and force the killer to narrow our choices down for us. The best town move in a LYLO is a no-lynch, forcing the killer to make a difficult decision and narrow down the town's possible leads for them.  Based on who dies it should be relatively easy for the town to narrow down the killer.

(5) edge case: I am killed - Same logic for Sah dying after my lynch scenario - why would the mafian kill me when I'm an easy lynch target?: Raya for pure mathematics, but think about it a little. If I'm out and wrong about Sah, and the killer takes out Sah to sew confusion, this is the only scenario where I'd recommend we consider lynching Surge/Cat - but Raya may be preferable as DF could shoot the lovers that night if wrong.

My Thoughts:

In both lynches the course of action is basically the same - you can essentially replace Sahrimnir with me for the recommended tomorrow's lynch targets if you want to do it that way.  Whoever is left alive, don't worry about Sah's scan OR my block tonight - Sah will come into tomorrow and claim to have scanned someone guilty - I won't be blocking so you know I'm not using it for some kind of bullshit cover. 

Based on Cat's current plan our final scenario:

(0) - Lynch me shoot Sah - Based on new info if we want to shoot Sahrimnir that's fine - the only risk is if Raya is the SK, which as I said is marginal.

 IF I'm lynched and Sah is shot tonight and the game STILL isn't over one way or another, we'll have Raya, Surge, Catterick, DarkFalco alive.  I recommend that DF lynches Raya and if *that* doesn't end it, shoot the lovers dead for a solo win.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

Post  Quaetam on Thu Aug 07, 2014 9:28 pm

Good luck guys, hope all goes well; I'll see you on the other side.

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Re: Mafia Game 27: What Lurks in the Void

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